Why Laying on Betfair Can Be Easier Than Backing

Recorded August 2025 for The Grind Ep3: Mastering Betfair SP, Lays & Market Angles – A Professional Approach. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

Betfair is a very good tool for laying. If you are disciplined, I think there is more scope in laying than there is in backing. The reason comes down to something simple that most punters never check. You can take the same set of selections and measure them two ways, once at top bookmaker price and once at Betfair starting price, and the gap between those two numbers tells you which way the market moves on them. When I do that with my lays, the gap is large, and it points in the direction I want.

What the two numbers actually say

Over the period I looked at there were 1,657 lay selections. They produced 211 winners, a strike rate of 12 per cent. Backed at the top fluctuation from 10am, when the form is released, that set of horses returned minus 14 per cent. That is the number if you were on them, and obviously we are not on them, we are against them.

Then I ran the same selections at Betfair SP. That figure is minus 6.5 per cent, before commission. We cannot lay at top price because we are not bookmakers. But we can lay at Betfair SP. So on that set, laying every one of them at SP came out on the right side of the ledger before commission, and once you take three or four per cent off for commission there was still a small edge left.

Why the gap matters more than the profit

The number I care about most is not the return, it is the difference between the two. Minus 14 at top price and minus 6.5 at SP means those horses were bigger on Betfair than they were with the bookmakers. That is not one out-wide bookie throwing up a silly price. It is the average top price from when the form comes out at 10am. So the majority of the horses I am opposing drift in the market between the morning and the jump.

That is a good sign. It says the market agrees with me over the course of the day. If my lays were shortening instead, I would be laying into money, and the SP figure would be worse than the top price figure, not better. The profile tells me the selection method is finding horses the market ends up walking away from.

What a drifting profile lets you do

If your lays drift, you have a second option beyond simply taking SP. You can try to lay them in shorter than the SP earlier in the day. That is not easy and I am not going to pretend it is. You have to be there, you have to be patient, and you will miss some. But if the profile says the horse is more likely to be bigger at the jump than it is now, the earlier price is the better price for a layer.

Use it as a check on your own method

Run your own selections both ways. Measure them at top price in the morning and at Betfair SP, then look at the gap rather than the raw result. That one comparison tells you whether the market is moving with you or against you, and that is the thing that decides whether laying is the right way to use them.

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More from Kingsley

• Why I Am Happy to Back Two Horses in the One Race
• "Why Won't I Back the Horse I Rate the Favourite?"
• Why a Big Price Is Not Always a Good Price

From the full video: The Grind Ep3: Mastering Betfair SP, Lays & Market Angles – A Professional Approach

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