Why Horses That Cannot Relax Do Not Win Cups

Recorded August 2025 for Million Dollar Melbourne Cup 2025 Challenge Ep 1. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

Sectionals matter a lot to me when I am working through a Melbourne Cup. I want to see fast last 200 metre and last 400 metre sectionals, particularly from horses down in the weights, because those horses can really attack through the line. What I do not want is a horse coming out of a slowly run race. The Cup is usually a fast run race, and horses stepping out of a slow tempo into a fast one struggle. That is the first filter. The second one is harder to measure but just as important, and it comes down to whether a horse can relax.

What the sectionals are telling me

A fast closing sectional tells me a horse has acceleration left at the end of a race. Over two miles, that is the thing that separates the winner from the ones filling the placings. A horse with a light weight and a sharp last 400 can get through the line hard. A horse that has been winning in slowly run races has not had to do that. It has been allowed to cruise and then find a bit late in a race that was never a genuine test of tempo. Put that horse into a fast run Cup and the picture changes completely.

Relaxation is the factor most people skip

The 2024 Melbourne Cup was a nightmare for most people. It was not a nightmare for Sheila Laxon. She said something about Knight's Choice that I keep coming back to. Everybody told her that Extreme Choice, the sire, would never produce a stayer. Extreme Choice only ever won over 1200 metres. But her point was that if you can teach the horse to relax, and he switches off and goes to sleep and saves all the energy, he can out sprint the stayers, because the dour stayers do not have that gear.

That is also why I have never put breeding into my factors. You can get a good idea from a horse's racing which ones will stay and which ones will not. The sire's race record did not stop Knight's Choice, because the trainer got him to relax.

The horses that use their energy too early

The flip side is a horse like Land Legend, trained by Chris Waller. That is a horse that does not relax. It pulled in the Caulfield Cup. A horse that does that is using energy in the first half of the race, and you need that energy at the end. It was much shorter in the market than Knight's Choice was, which tells you how differently the market was reading the same problem.

Then there are the dour stayers. Dovil Legend came out from the UK, and a lot of those UK horses are exactly that. They grind, but they have no acceleration. Dovil Legend was off the map. There is a long list of dour stayers that have been beaten in this race, and the reason is the same every time. No turn of foot at the end of 3200 metres.

So when I look at a Cup field, I am looking for closing sectionals, a horse coming out of a well run race, and a horse that switches off in running. If it cannot relax, I am happy to leave it alone.

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From the full video: Million Dollar Melbourne Cup 2025 Challenge Ep 1 | 7 Key Factors to Find the 2025 Cup Winner

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