Caulfield Cup 2026 tips and Melbourne Cup preview: Kingsley rates every international raider

Recorded Wednesday 14 October 2026, three days before the Caulfield Cup and 20 days before the Melbourne Cup. Watch the full 47-minute video below.

Kingsley opens with an admission you don't hear from him often: this year's Cups are open, the form lines don't agree, and he wants the chat's help getting to the call of the card. Here is where he landed.

Caulfield Cup: the two he's against

Half Yours, last year's winner, hasn't run a place in six starts since. The problem isn't only form. He goes from 52.5 kg to 57.5 kg in the Caulfield Cup and from 53 kg to 59 kg in the Melbourne Cup. "Is he going better? No. Has he got more weight? Absolutely." At $13 Kingsley can't have him.

Cosmic Crusader is favourite on the highest rating in the race, but that rating came on a heavy track, and Saturday will be firm. He has never been past 2000 m, this is his first try at 2400 m, and he's drawn barrier 17. A horse with a distance query wants an inside draw. "Is he a chance? Yes. Am I backing him? No."

The tip: Wine Dark Sea

Kingsley's pick is the UK raider Wine Dark Sea, with Damian Lane to ride. Three reasons:

1. The Newbury win. He led in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer, was taken on by Dubai Honour, and held him off with a real sprint over the last 200 m. Kingsley says that sprint is what wins a Caulfield Cup.
2. The money. He went from 16/1 into 7/2 that day. "Money speaks volumes about a horse's ability and whether they're going to improve."
3. The weight. He carried 60.75 kg at Newbury. He gets 54.5 kg on Saturday.

He wants a firm track and gets one. The draw (barrier 19) is a negative Kingsley won't hide, and $9 is about the price. He rates Wine Dark Sea roughly fourth on the adjusted ratings but top on upside. He also thinks both Wine Dark Sea and Enfjaar are better suited to 2400 m than 3200 m, so this is their race, not a pipe-opener for Flemington.

The rest of the Caulfield field, in short

• Enfjaar (barrier 1, Ray Dawson): a chance at about $13, but a seven-year-old whose best rating is his last start. Saver material.
• Royal Supremacy: $13 is too short. His last-start rating came from a soft lead; he won't get that here with five horses wanting to go forward.
• Saint George: well weighted, Craig Williams, barrier 2, but 0 wins from 12 black-type starts. More a $15 chance than $8.50.
• Starford: one good run (the Curragh Group 3), nothing since. Looks a wet-tracker. No.
• She's A Hustler: $17 looks a bit short for what she needs to find, but a win wouldn't shock.
• Knight's Choice: unlucky this prep; $31 to $51 is fair value for a Cup winner. Middle Earth: no.
• Zahrann: the horse everyone wants to tip. Came over with a UK rating in the same band as Wine Dark Sea and Enfjaar, won the Naturalism on a good track, then was beaten 18 lengths on the heavy. Drops to 53 kg. Kingsley has him in his first three on upside, but asks the chat: what exactly is the upside, the style, the UK form, or the trainer?
• The Euphrates: $15 is too short with the pace in the race. Three of the top six Australian ratings came out of the Metropolitan, a race that doesn't produce Cup winners.

Melbourne Cup: how to read the internationals

This is the heart of the video. Kingsley puts the Racing Post ratings of every international since 2018 on one screen and makes two points.

Raw rating is not the number. The column that matters is the weight-adjusted rating. Point Of Law rates 112 raw but 122 adjusted because he gets in with 51 kg. Cross Counter rated 129 adjusted and Rekindling 127. They were freaks: three-year-olds doing 119 raw with 51 kg on their backs. Nobody is arriving like that any more, and the handicapper is awake to it.

The table. Around 70 internationals since 2018, two winners (Cross Counter and Twilight Payment), eleven placings. Backed to win $200 each with a variable stake, the lot lose about 54% on turnover. The top two adjusted ratings in that whole set both won. From third-ranked down, one winner in 70-odd.

Kingsley's own lesson: Al Riffa last year rated 121 raw but 115 adjusted, and he backed him at $8 anyway. "I forgot about the weight."

The second shipment

The later-arriving horses landed this week. The ones Kingsley stopped on:

• Defiantly, the favourite: ratings good enough to win a Cup on paper (118 and 117). But his best figure came in a small field at Deauville over 3000 m with no pressure, he looks a grinder rather than a horse with a sprint, nothing has led them all the way home since Twilight Payment, and 56.5 kg is enough for an on-pacer. Kingsley is against him at the price and wants your view.
• Point Of Law: four starts, got too far back in a Group 2 at Ascot and still ran fourth, then won a five-horse Group 3 up the Newmarket hill. Top adjusted rating in the race at around 33/1. The question is whether a horse this lightly raced can do it in our conditions.
• James J Braddock: beaten 3.8 lengths in a Group 3 at Leopardstown after being gelded, never past 2400 m, 53.5 kg, adjusted rating 115. $11 looks short.
• Trust Your Instinct: the best of the Europeans on the eye. Came from last in the Curragh Cup and put them away with real acceleration, running straight past Al Riffa. Needs a good track; if it rains on Cup day, leave him alone.
• Small Fry and King Jar run in the Geelong Cup and need to win to get in. Kingsley sees an opportunity if the price is right.

Where he sits

"I'm confused, but I'm happy." Nothing has jumped out yet. His new ratings model gets the full data Monday night, and he's back in two weeks after the Caulfield Cup and the Cox Plate to redo every screen, with the Geelong Cup added.

Three questions he wants answered in the comments: how important is weight in a Melbourne Cup, are this year's internationals as good as the 2018 crop or second-stringers, and what is it about Zahrann?

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