Kingsley on racing.com's The Bookies' Ring: $660,000 on Shocking, the Cup bet he had on to win $800,000, and how two pros see Tuesday

Kingsley sat down with Brent Zerafa and fellow professional punter Adam Sparrow at Flemington for The Bookies' Ring on racing.com this week. Twenty-five minutes on the Cups that paid, the Cups that got away, this year's race and the Call of the Card. Watch the full episode below.

Brent's opening question was what the two of them love about the Melbourne Cup. Kingsley's answer: the betting. He loves the race and the puzzle of it, but everything revolves around the betting, and it is the most bet-on race on the Australian calendar. Here is the rest of the episode, with timestamps so you can jump to the part you want.

$660,000 on Shocking, and a losing day (5:06)

The best result Kingsley has ever had in a single race. He had $62,500 on Shocking in the 2009 Cup and won $660,000. He still lost money on the day.

The reason is how he bet back then. There are about 14 meetings on Cup day, he was betting on more than 100 races, and the amounts on every one of them were huge. Not Shocking-sized, but it adds up fast. He watched it from the office in his bedroom at home, and for the first half of the race, with Shocking four wide and no cover, he thought he had no hope.

He has always wanted to win a million dollars in one race. "I may be 95 when I achieve it, but I will achieve it."

The one he had on to win $800,000 (12:17)

Maluckyday, 2010. Same pattern as Shocking: light weight and a quick back-up after winning the Lexus on the Saturday. Kingsley took about $11 or $12 and wanted to bet him to win $1.2 million. The bookies accepted a bet to win $800,000. It is the closest he has come to having a Cup winner running for a million, but he never thought he would get there, and Americain beat him cleanly. That was the year So You Think started a strong favourite.

Adam's Jeune double, 1994 (1:59)

Adam's biggest Cup story starts with Dermot Weld, who brought Vintage Crop back for a second Cup and told the officials to water the track or he would not bring any more horses. They watered it.

Adam had the Caulfield and Melbourne Cup double running: Paris Lane, who won the Caulfield Cup, into two David Hayes horses, Top Rating and Jeune. He had seen Jeune beat Mahogany in the Underwood. The bet went through a friend with a bookmaker, to win $100,000 all up. Then it drizzled on the day, Top Rating hated the wet, and Adam says he felt sick. He walked from the members to the public stand to watch it live, saw Greg Hall on Top Rating slipping all over the track off the turn, and then heard the caller say Jeune was rushing forward. "This massive thing moving through the water, crossing it as if it had been born in it." He started trembling at the 100 m. He had never bet that much before and has never felt the same euphoria since, and he has had plenty of big wins. On the escalator afterwards he heard a girl say, "Look at that guy's face."

Rekindling and the speed map in the hotel lobby (6:19)

Adam found Rekindling about a month out at around $17 and decided to wait for the day. On the Saturday night before the Cup he ran into Corey Brown at Crown. Corey had the ride on the weight, 51.5 kg, was riding in Singapore at the time, and had not seen the horse. They had dinner on the Sunday and talked tactics.

On the Monday Adam's friend Peter Kennedy, who reads a track as well as anyone, told him the rail was the place to be until the turn, then lanes three and four in the straight. Corey asked for a speed map. Adam drew it and handed it over in the lobby at 9 am on Cup morning: Boom Time leads, Yankee Rose and Merriest on the rail, Max Dynamite in there, you will be about four pairs back on the fence, sit, move just before the turn, straighten in three or four. "Now go ride the winner and we'll celebrate tonight." The race was run exactly as the map said. Adam gives Corey all the credit for the ride, and both pros agree you almost never see a Melbourne Cup winner ridden badly. It takes the perfect ride.

The $500,000 heartbreak, then $300,000 from scraps of paper (9:10)

The $500k in the episode title is Adam's. In 2011 he had $10,000 on Red Cadeaux at 50/1, to win half a million, and he thought he had won. The photo took forever. Dunaden got it by the smallest margin in Cup history.

Then he went through the scraps of paper covered in first fours, trifectas and quinellas. Dunaden, Red Cadeaux, Lucas Cranach, Americain. He had the first four for $10 and it paid about $20,000, and the trifecta for $20 at about $500. Around $300,000 from the exotics, from total despair a few minutes earlier. That, Adam says, is what the Cup can do in the exotic pools, with so much recreational money in them, and he expects the pools to keep growing under the single national pool.

Might And Power, and Alan Denham in the bar (10:36)

Adam took 8/1 about Might And Power in the Caulfield Cup and then 9/2 for the Melbourne Cup, not the double. He watched from the steps, saw Greg Hall on Doriemus wave his arm in the air at the line, and assumed he had lost. Walking back he ran into Alan Denham coming out of the bar and commiserated. Then he passed a big screen as the photo came up: Might And Power had won. He ran back. Denham's first reply was that Adam was pulling his leg. His second was, "I'd better go find my wife."

Why Kingsley still bets biggest in Cup week (13:52)

Kingsley used to raise his limits four or five times for the whole carnival week, Saturday to Saturday. He has cut that back, but he still bets much more heavily on the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup, because they are the races where you can still get real money on at the right price. On the Caulfield Cup at the Call of the Card the bookies bet to 103 per cent.

How the pros see this year's Cup (14:40)

Kingsley's one-word answer: confusing. A very even race and he is undecided. What he is waiting on:

• The track. Rain is forecast and the condition on the day will be a big factor. He is not sure about Point Of Law on a wet track, and there are a couple of wet-trackers in the field who need the rain.
• The pace and the map. Defiantly goes forward and Point Of Law kept up a strong tempo at Geelong. His read is that this year you will need a real, strong 3200 m horse.
• The model. It runs on Saturday night after the final field and barrier draw, and he reads the numbers on Sunday morning. Until then he is not committing.

On the internationals: their ratings sit above the Australians on paper, but once you take off travel and who adapts there is not much between them. His bigger point is that this year's imports have good ratings without much substance behind them. Defiantly earned his number winning a slowly run five-horse race at Deauville. It is a rare Cup in that sense.

The one he cannot get out of his head is still Point Of Law's Geelong Cup: a fast tempo, he fought, and he still had acceleration. It fits the formula Kingsley likes, a lightly raced horse with upside, a light weight, and a run here already. Since 2018 about 70 horses have come out for the Cup and only two have won without racing here first. That is why he is wary of Trustyourinstinct, well prepared but 30-odd starts and 57 kg on his first try in Australia.

Adam's side of it:

• Shockletz is his horse. He has been on her for a month. He likes her Flemington form, the light weight, and the way Ciaron Maher prepares a horse, which reminds him of Bart Cummings. Her sire Shocking won the race. He expects her to be very hard to beat in the lightweight division.
• Saint George. Exceptional in the Caulfield Cup and exceptional again on Cox Plate day. If he runs the trip, hard to beat.
• The Caulfield Cup form stacks up. He thought it was an ordinary benchmark when they crossed the line, but Saint George and Cosmic Crusader both came out of it and ran big on Cox Plate day.
• Point Of Law. A magnificent-looking horse and hard not to be impressed. Adam is against him only for the price, and because he has had five starts and backs up 13 days later. He would not be surprised to see him win.
• Juja Kibo. Flying after the Moonee Valley Cup, but a muddling pace suited him, he finished 17th in a 3200 m Sydney Cup, and Adam doubts him if they go fast. Well weighted though.
• Barriers. Only matter for horses that are not proven at 3200 m. They need to land on the fence and relax, not work for a position. He thinks that is what cost Cosmic Crusader the Caulfield Cup.
• The trainers. Ciaron Maher could have seven or eight runners and Joseph O'Brien four to six, which is half the field between them. "Nobody is better than Ciaron Maher."

Why the Call of the Card still matters (22:22)

Under the minimum bet law the limits at Kingsley's desk are $2,000. At the Call of the Card they are $250,000. It is the one time of the year he can have a proper bet. There are only four bookmakers in the room, they bet to about 103 per cent, and he calls it close to a coin toss, us against them. He will be active again on Monday, and how heavily depends on how Derby Day goes. Last year people were betting to win a million and five million on Al Riffa.

Adam's version: if he is not in Melbourne in Cup week he breaks out in a rash. He has watched 12 or 13 of the last 15 Cups alone in a Melbourne hotel room, Rekindling and Fiorente included, shouting at the television.

"It's my turn now"

Kingsley's recent Cups: saved on Without A Fight, nothing on Knight's Choice or Half Yours. His best Cup was 2009 and he thinks he is due. "It's my turn to have a good run in the Melbourne Cup. So be careful."

What's next from Kingsley

The final field is declared today and the barrier draw follows. The model runs tonight and Kingsley's Melbourne Cup show goes up on The King Zone YouTube channel on Saturday night once the numbers are in.

If you want his ratings, speed maps and Official Tips on Cup Day and Oaks Day, the Cup + Oaks pass covers both days for $50: theking.zone/cup-oaks