Kingsley on Who's the Boss: how he lines up the Melbourne Cup, his early pick, and the Call of the Card

Kingsley joined Glen Boss and Adam Peacock on the Who's the Boss podcast this week, recorded in Sydney before the Bendigo Cup and the final field. Watch the full episode below.

Bossy opened with the question everyone is asking: half the Cup field hasn't galloped in public in Australia, so how do you line it up? Here is Kingsley's answer, plus the rest of the hour.

The carnival so far

Up and down. The Caulfield Cup was a strip-out, Cox Plate day was a fill-up. Not the Cox Plate itself: Kingsley had a big bet on Aeliana, and when she got three-quarters of a length clear he thought she had them. William Pike and Cosmic Crusader were too good. The Everest cost him too, with a big bet on Ka Ying Rising.

On the Caulfield Cup, the race went so slowly (Royal Supremacy was "going 14 to the furlong for about three furlongs") that it invited everyone into it. Kingsley's point is the form may be better than it looks: Cosmic Crusader came out of it to win the Cox Plate, and Saint George ran a big race in fourth.

How he lines up the internationals

Kingsley's starting point is the overseas ratings, from Timeform and a couple of other providers, normalised to his own scale. Bossy's analogy was currency: the pound and the dollar are different, but there is an exchange rate. Kingsley agreed, with the caveat that it is not an exact science.

Then the adjustments:

• Travel and two weeks in quarantine.
• Whether the horse has had a run here.
• Track conditions on the day.
• The jockey. Yes, he puts minuses on jockeys riding a track for the first time. Bossy backed that up from the saddle: at a new track you walk it, study it, try to get rides earlier on the card, and still find the field size and tempo here nothing like Europe's six- and eight-horse fields.
• Weight. They carry 60 kg all the time over there, then arrive here and get 53 to 58.

On his scale you want to be over 100. Defiantly leads the way on 106, but that does not mean Kingsley wants to back him. A horse on 106 can regress once you take off travel, quarantine, 56.5 kg, a jockey riding here for the first time, and a race shape nothing like the six-horse Deauville field he ambled to the front of. He could come back to 102. A lightly raced horse like Point Of Law might be on 101 or 102 now and you can see him going higher. That is the whole reason Point Of Law is $8 and Defiantly is around $11.

His two hard rules, and a third

Kingsley says he does not run on rules because the model weights all the factors. But pushed, two things are non-negotiable:

1. Weight.
2. The 3200 m. Saint George has terrific form, second in a Caulfield Cup and fourth in a Cox Plate, but his one try at 3200 m was second last in the 2024 Melbourne Cup. Kingsley is "a bit soft" on any horse that has already failed at the trip. He also points out Saint George has never won a black-type race.

And the third: acceleration. A lightweight with acceleration is "a terrific mix for a Melbourne Cup."

Point Of Law: the split in the room

Kingsley: if he had to tip now, it is Point Of Law. He cannot get the Geelong Cup out of his head. He was taken on in front and the acceleration at the finish was "amazing." Ciaron Maher and Ethan Brown say he will be better over 3200 m, and they know more than anyone.

Bossy: against him. Point Of Law did a lot wrong at Geelong and still won, which shows stamina, but he cannot do that on Cup day. Big crowd, warm afternoon, the walk down the roses, and "by the time they get to the barriers half their race is already run." The market after Geelong was "a massive overreaction." He might be the favourite next year. Bossy's own words: a 21-year-old with a lot of energy who has had ten Canadian Clubs by one o'clock.

Kingsley's reply: if anyone can curb a young horse's enthusiasm in a short time, it is Ciaron Maher. Bossy agreed on that much and compared Maher's eye to the trainer who used to ask what a horse was doing at the 600 m when only the jockey could have felt it.

Kingsley's price guide: fair is around $5. At $7 he still backs it. At $6 or $5 he waits for the day and hopes it eases. If it starts $4.60 and he is not on, "some win, some lose."

The others they stopped on

• Trustyourinstinct: visually the most impressive of the UK runs, with an enormous turn of foot in the Curragh Cup. Two worries for Kingsley: he is not good on a wet track, and the weather will play a massive part in this Cup. And he is a 30-odd start horse carrying 57 kg. Adam Peacock's pick regardless.
• Saint George: Bossy's pick, on the Cox Plate run and the Caulfield Cup run. "If Ciaron Maher didn't think he'd get 3200 he wouldn't run him."
• Defiantly: see above. Good enough on paper, hardest to project forward.

Kingsley's own tip is Point Of Law today, with three things to see first: the rain, the track, and the barrier draw.

What he does on the mounting yard

Nothing. He has no data on sweating or playing up, so it does not go into the equation. Some horses sweat every time. The one thing he does watch is behind the barriers: a horse that has to be reshod or blindfolded and spun "doesn't win very often." Bossy agreed from the other side of the fence: if they do not want to load, there is usually a reason.

Call of the Card, and why Monday is his grand final

Kingsley flies down Sunday and is home Monday night. The race itself is almost an afterthought. "I'm done Monday 3pm."

The reason is simple. Four bookmakers in the room have to bet to win $250,000. Back at the desk on any other day, the Victorian minimum bet law means every corporate will only lay him to win $2,000. Many of the bookies in the room go further and bet to win $500,000 or a million. Last year Stake backed Al Riffa to win $5 million and the betting "was off its head."

His process: the model runs after the barrier draw on Saturday night. Sunday morning he reads the numbers against the bookies and the exchange. Markets move a little on Sunday, not much, so he walks in with a plan. Sometimes the price is not there and he waits for the day.

Process, not results

Adam asked whether he felt sick when Ka Ying Rising got beaten at $1.60 when on-course was $1.35 to $1.40. "Definite sense of satisfaction." He does not beat himself up over results. He beats himself up over handling a day badly. The price you take is a big part of the process, and if you keep the discipline, over time it pays.

Most of the selection work happens during the week, often late at night, adding factors to the model: how overseas horses perform here, how Ciaron Maher goes first up or first time at 3200 m. Time ratings and sectionals used to be an edge. Now they are public and the bookies have them, so the edge is in what you build on top: sectionals out of fast-run versus slow-run races, different distance bands, and a lot of recent work on whether "track bias" is really the pace, the wind or the lanes. On a day when leaders win seven or eight, find the horse that ran on anyway.

And on gambling generally: it is not a poker machine. "You can win. I've done it for a job."

Derby Day and the Golden Eagle

• Victoria Derby. Bossy likes Cormier ($4.60) from barrier three. Kingsley's worry is the amount of pace in the race, and he is not a big Derby man with horses going to 2500 m first time. His two: Stormy Marco and True Rebel, who backs up seven days. Both think the serious talk of taking the Derby back to 2000 m would be a plus.
• Coolmore Stud Stakes. Bossy goes with The Next Episode on his record and the way he attacked the line last start. Kingsley thinks it is open: St Gotthard and Under Focus (about $20) out of the Golden Rose, and Satono Glow at around $4.80 looks a nice horse.
• Empire Rose Stakes. Lady Shenandoah is close to odds-on. Kingsley's value is Concord Connie at around $8 each way: third up, two from two at Flemington, and the big track will suit. Bossy warns Surfin' Bird will be off and gone if the favourite meets traffic.
• Golden Eagle. Both think Sheza Alibi wins. Kingsley thought she would be shorter than $1.90 and calls it a fair price. The only danger he sees is a leader if the track is hard to make ground on. Autumn Boy, third favourite, has been "running in too many different races." If he were flying, he would have run in the Cox Plate.

Other things from the hour

• Flemington's rail stays in the true position from Cox Plate day for Derby Day. Bossy walked the track and it was hardly marked.
• The Cox Plate belongs at Moonee Valley. The new grass is down and the project is about three months ahead. Temporary stands next year, the rebuilt track opens on grand final eve, and the permanent stands come after.
• World Pool days: Hong Kong money shortens the favourites, so the value drifts to the longer ones. The merged One Tote means a $100 bet on a Monday or Tuesday no longer wrecks your own dividend.

What's next from Kingsley

A Derby Day preview on The King Zone YouTube channel on Thursday, then a Melbourne Cup show on Saturday night once the barrier draw is out and the model has run. The Cup Week pass covers Derby Day, Cup Day, Oaks Day and Champions Day for $100: theking.zone/cup-week