Melbourne Cup 2026 Preview: Every Runner Rated and My Shortlist

Kingsley, Thursday 29 October 2026

Five sleeps to the Melbourne Cup and I'm more confident about this race every day. This is my runner-by-runner look at the field, using my Melbourne Cup weight-adjusted rating, which merges the UK ratings (normalised with thanks to Dan O'Sullivan) with the Australian ratings. It combines past form with current form. The final video, with the barrier draw, the track, the market and everything from the Call of the Card on Monday, goes to all members on Tuesday morning. Membership is free, no card needed.

Watch the full preview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnQNmHIoe1w

How to read the ratings

Ratings aren't the be-all and end-all of a Melbourne Cup, but you need a base. After weight adjustment that base is 100. Horses below 100 are up against it: a horse like James J Braddock at 99.6 would have to find a 104 to win, and a horse can usually only improve so much in one run. A horse like Shockletz on 101, going to 3200 m for the first time off a fast pace, can get there.

The shortlist

• Defiantly (105.8, 56.5 kg). Leads the ratings off a win at the Curragh, but that was a small field and he's a leader in a race with plenty of pace. Only nine starts, so there's upside, and he stays all day. Drifting to around $13. On the list.
• Hopewell Rock (104, 54.5 kg). Two 104s in a row, including a second in the Ebor in a big field, beat Small Fry along the way, only ten starts. The query is George Boughey having his first Cup runner. On the list.
• So You Are (103, 53 kg before any Bendigo Cup penalty). Won his last four, Bjorn Baker, six-day back-up like Knight's Choice. On-pacer and unproven past 2500–2600 m, but he has X-factor. On the list.
• Trust Your Instinct (101.8, 57 kg). Joseph O'Brien, James McDonald. Fourth in the Irish St Leger, won a Curragh Cup, and the acceleration maps beautifully for a run from just worse than midfield. Negatives: 25 starts, no rain wanted, hasn't run here, $9 is short. On the list.
• Point Of Law (101.8, 53 kg). Rated 100.6 out of the Geelong Cup, his best on Dan's scale. Five starts, raw, Ciaron Maher and Ethan Brown both say he'll get the trip and the breeding (out of a Deep Impact mare) agrees. The risk is he doesn't settle. On the list, even at $7.
• Shockletz (101, 51 kg). Won The Archer off an extremely fast pace with more weight, can sprint, sits back off tempo. 19 starts so he's near his peak, but the 51 kg is a huge plus. On the list and I'm warming to him.
• Saint George (105.1, 55 kg). Second in a Caulfield Cup and fifth in a Cox Plate is as good a prep as you get, but he's never won at black-type level and ran second last in the 2024 Cup. On the fence until I've done more work on the 3200 m.

The no's

Juja Kibo (slowly run form, failed in the Sydney Cup), Enfjaar (3200 m query), Mr Monaco (wet tracker, failed as Sydney Cup favourite; exotics if it rains), Sons And Lovers (57.5 kg, on-pacer, no run here), James J Braddock (under 100, untried past 2400 m), Zahrann (best at 1850 m, 54.5 kg is enough), Goodie Two Shoes (up 3.5 kg, not going better), Middle Earth (out of form, up 2 kg, not a 3200 m horse), Wine Dark Sea, Knight's Choice (up 5 kg to 56.5 kg after a 14th in the Caulfield Cup), Stinger Glass (reportedly failed the vet).

For the exotics

I think this is a fast-run Cup, which means real trifecta and first-four money. Stayers to include: Soul Of Spain (Chris Waller, can run a place), Kizlyar (beat Defiantly over 4000 m, 53.5 kg, better over 3200 m), Zakouma (ignore the 1600 m sharpener, wants it wet, no weight), and Mr Monaco if it rains.

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