Why Some Horses Only Perform Off a Fast Tempo

Recorded September 2025 for Max Bet Ep.8: The $2 Melbourne Cup Clue + Best Early Bet in WA. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

Some horses only run their best race when there is real pressure in front of them. Take the speed away and they produce nothing. I look for this pattern all the time, because it lets me take on a well-fancied runner when the tempo of the race is not going to suit. If I expect an average tempo and the horse's good form is all off fast tempo, that is enough for me.

What the record shows

When I go through this horse's runs, the pattern is clear. His best ratings come off fast tempo races. There is one fast run where he did no good, but apart from that, the quick races are where the good numbers sit. Then you look at the slow tempo runs. Very slow, ran ninth. Slow, ran fifth. Slow, third. One below average tempo produced a fifth. That is a lot of evidence pointing the same way.

His wins back it up. There have only been two of them. The Underwood is the one that stands out, where he brained them and won pretty easy. I was surprised the rating was not higher, because to the eye it looked better than the number. But even allowing for that, his best figures come off fast tempos. He needs a fast tempo. If I think the race is going to be run at an average tempo, that worries me.

Why the sectionals say the same thing

The other reason I am against him is the last 600 figures, and what they were run off. I like comparing these side by side, because a closing sectional on its own tells you very little. You have to know what the early part of the race was.

Sir Delius has done a one fifty four. He did it off an 88, then a one twenty three, then the one fifty four. So the early speed was genuine and he still finished off strongly. Buckaroo has never done a one fifty four. He has a one forty four, and with that he also has a faster last 600 of one fifty. But look at how slow they went early in that race. The early figures are nowhere near what Sir Delius was doing.

That is the whole point. A good closing sectional off a crawl is not the same as a good closing sectional off genuine speed. If they go a bit faster early, that is a big difference. Comparing the eighties that Sir Delius did against what the other horse was running early, you are not looking at the same kind of effort at all.

How I use it

A tempo dependent horse is not a bad horse. It is a horse with conditions. When those conditions turn up, it rates well. When they do not, it runs fifth or ninth and the figure is below average. So before I back one, I ask what the tempo is likely to be, and I check whether its best numbers came out of races run the same way.

When the pattern says fast and the race shapes as average, I am happy to be against it, even if it is a short one in the market. Go through the form line by line, note the tempo next to every good rating, and compare sectionals only when you know what they were run off.

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More from Kingsley

• "Should You Bet When the Track Is Biased or the Rail Is Out?"
• Why You Should Bet Against Leaders Heading to Flemington
• "Should You Still Back Your Best Bet on a Biased Track?"

From the full video: Max Bet Ep.8: The $2 Melbourne Cup Clue + Best Early Bet in WA

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