Which Lead Up Race Produces the Melbourne Cup Winner?

Recorded August 2025 for Million Dollar Melbourne Cup 2025 Challenge Ep 1. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

The lead up race matters, and the numbers back it up. Looking at Melbourne Cup winners from 2000 on, the Caulfield Cup has produced six, the Cox Plate has produced six, and the Geelong Cup takes the bronze medal. That is 15 of 25 winners out of three races. So the profile I want is simple. A class horse that has had a lead up race in Australia and is ready to peak on the first Tuesday in November.

The three races that keep producing

The Caulfield Cup and the Cox Plate sit at the top. The Geelong Cup is next. Between them they account for the bulk of the winners this century, which tells you the local form lines are doing their job. Gold Trip is the example I keep coming back to. He came through the Cox Plate, Kieran Maher got his first winner for Mark Zahra, and the horse went bang. A class horse, an Australian lead up, and the sectionals to support it. That is the shape of a winner.

The favourites who came here cold

Now the other side. There is a long list of horses that came over without a run in Australia, started favourite, and got beaten. Vauban in 2024. Vauban in 2023. Deauville Legend, who ran fourth in 2022. Yucatan in 2018. Marmelo in 2017. Fame Game in 2015. The list goes on. These are not just runners, these are the horses the market got behind. Some of them were dour stayers as well, but none of them had a lead up run here.

There are exceptions, and they are worth understanding. Cross Counter and Rekindling came over listed as three year olds, realistically four year olds, and were weighted as three year olds. That weight relief was a big part of why they got the cash. Those types now sit on top of the weights, so set them aside. That leaves Twilight Payment, who came over as an eight year old without a run. He is the only one. Plenty of others have been beaten.

Age and the one run wonder problem

That makes me wonder about age too. Six year olds and up coming here without a run, is that a big negative on its own? I lean that way, but I am still asking the question.

The other issue is the horse that comes over, has one run here, peaks and wins. Can it reproduce that? We have seen it a few times. Horses run well in the Geelong Cup or the Bendigo Cup off a lead up from the UK, everyone expects them to improve again, and they fall flat. They cannot back up that quickly. One good run on arrival is not the same as a horse that has been building through an Australian campaign.

So when you go through the field, ask where each horse is coming from. Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate or Geelong Cup, and a horse that looks like it is peaking rather than one that has already peaked. That is where I start. If you disagree, and plenty do, I want to hear it.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• "Why Would I Lay Both Favourites in the Same Race?"
• "Is There Any Value Left in Odds-On Favourites?"
• Why Laying on Betfair Can Be Easier Than Backing

From the full video: Million Dollar Melbourne Cup 2025 Challenge Ep 1 | 7 Key Factors to Find the 2025 Cup Winner

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