"Is There Any Value Left in Odds-On Favourites?"
Short-priced favourites still win plenty, but the money is thin. Here is where my profitable odds range actually sits.
Recorded November 2025 for 10 Betting Systems That Actually Work. Any figures mentioned are from that time.
I wanted to know where the sweet spot in the odds range sits for my selections, so I ran the numbers off the high price. The answer at the moment is between $3.50 and $15. That range is where the return is. Down at the pointy end, under odds-on or anything around $2.50 and below, the value is nowhere near what it used to be. Those horses win, and they win often, but the market has already taken the money out of them by the time the race is run.
Where the sweet spot sits
Running the official tips through the $3.50 to $15 band gives plus 8.8 per cent. When I ran the same thing not long before, it came back at just over 10 per cent, so some newer data has pulled it back a touch. That is normal. Numbers move as results go in, and a figure that drifts a point or two either way over a short window is telling you the range is holding up, not that something has broken.
Out of interest I then ran the favourites, $1.10 to $3.40 at high price, to see whether you actually win backing them. You do. It came back at 1.4, off a strike rate of 43 per cent. So you are backing plenty of winners and you are not going backwards. But the profit is not there. That is the whole point. A high strike rate feels good and it does very little for your bank if the market has already squeezed the price flat before you get on.
Why those horses get smashed in
A lot of the short-priced runners have been backed early. By race day the price has been cut, and whatever edge was in that horse has gone into someone else's pocket. You are turning over money for a return that barely covers the swings. It is not a losing game, it is just a game with almost nothing in it, and there are better places to put the same dollar.
How I stake around it
This changed how I bet. My staking is to win 200, and I cap the max bet at 100. So the maximum I will outlay is half the target. If I find a horse at $1.50, it gets the same bet, or virtually the same bet, as a $3 chance. I did not always do this. I used to chip up and bet bigger on the odds-on chances because the strike rate made it feel safe. The value just is not there anymore to justify it.
The cap does two jobs. It stops me over-committing to a price that is not paying me properly, and it means a two-on chance getting beaten does not blow a hole in the bank. One short-priced loser should be an inconvenience, not a week's work undone.
If you take one thing from this, go and run your own numbers by odds band rather than looking at overall strike rate. Find out where your return actually comes from, then set a max bet that protects you in the range where it does not.
Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.
More from Kingsley
- Why Laying on Betfair Can Be Easier Than Backing
- Why I Am Happy to Back Two Horses in the One Race
- "Why Won't I Back the Horse I Rate the Favourite?"
From the full video: 10 Betting Systems That Actually Work
Gamble responsibly. 18+. If gambling is a problem for you, call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
