"Why Won't I Back the Horse I Rate the Favourite?"

Recorded July 2025 for How a Professional Punter Thinks: Kingsley Bartholomew’s Glasshouse 2025 Breakdown. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

I can rate a horse the best chance in a race and still not put a cent on it. That sounds odd until you separate two different jobs. The first job is working out which horse is most likely to win. The second job is working out whether the market is paying you enough to take it on. Those two answers are often different, and when they are, I take the horse that is longer than my assessed price, not the one I have rated on top.

Rating a horse the favourite is not the same as backing it

Take Warney. Great chance. I actually marked him favourite based on being unlucky last start and being fit for three runs back. But there is no value there. He is three fifty and I marked him two eighty. That is the end of it for me. I am not being paid for the risk I am taking, so I am not in.

Inflictor is the one I want. I marked him three eighty and you can get four sixty or five dollars. He ticks a lot of boxes. He has the rank one campaigner backing up seven days after a good win last Saturday. He is fit, four from eight at the distance, and he has come back from 1,600 to 1,400, which I think is a positive. Great cruising speed, puts himself into the right part of the race, and he has a class edge. On top of all that, the price is longer than what I have priced him. So I will take the five dollars early.

A drift does not change my mind

Here is the part people find hard. If Warney drifted on the day to four dollars, I still would not be on him. I have already decided I am on Inflictor. That decision was made before the market moved, and a price change on its own is not new information about the horse.

If you bet purely off prices, you will find yourself backing a lot of drifters. I have talked before about a system where if a horse was in the top four you would bet it. The problem is you end up chasing the market instead of working off your own assessment. That is why I like to make my mind up before, not while the board is moving.

Keeping total exposure under about 40 per cent of the market

The other reason I leave Warney alone is that I do not want to overcommit in the race. I already have a good roughie I like at Redford, so that is two bets. Adding a third means I am taking too much percentage of the market.

As a rough guide, I cut it out at about 40 per cent of the market. Once you are past that and backing three or four horses in the one race, you cannot really have a good result even when one of them wins. That is where staking gets out of control. You start with one solid opinion, you add a saver, then you add another, and suddenly you have overinvested in a race you only half liked.

So do the two jobs separately. Rate the race first, then look at the board, and only bet where the price is longer than your assessment. Then count your bets and make sure the total is not eating more of the market than the race is worth.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• Why a Big Price Is Not Always a Good Price
• Why Betting Big Ruins Your Own Price
• Why the Tote Is Costing You More Than You Think

From the full video: How a Professional Punter Thinks: Kingsley Bartholomew’s Glasshouse 2025 Breakdown

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