Why the Tote Is Costing You More Than You Think

Recorded September 2025 for Why You’re Losing on the Punt (Even When You Pick Winners). Any figures mentioned are from that time.

I keep a database of every bet since 2018, and one of the simplest things it tells me is what each betting product costs before you pick a single horse. Not what my selections did. What every runner did. If you backed every horse at a given product, where would you finish up? The answer changes a lot depending on which product you use, and the gap between the worst and the best is bigger than most punters realise.

What my own numbers say each product costs

If you backed every horse on the New South Wales tote, you lose about 14 percent of turnover. That is just from walking into a TAB and putting it on the tote. Realistically you would lose more than that. All the totes are about the same. Top fluctuation, betting on a variable stake to win a set amount, is minus 7 percent. Best tote is minus 8 percent.

So just by taking the best tote instead of the one tote, you add 6 percent to your bottom line. Add the SP on top of best tote and it gives you another 1 percent. I saw one bookmaker betting best of three totes with the SP on a Monday, which is a great product, because one of those totes can often kick out with a bit of tote manipulation. And if you could pick the better of top fluc and best tote on each runner, you are probably getting it down to around minus 2 percent. That is on every horse in the race, not just the ones you are backing. None of that includes early betting either, where the price sometimes ends up over the mark.

Everything in this game is small margins. You are never going to be winning 30 percent. You have to eke out every little bit you can get.

A quick lesson in percentages

If you have not come across market percentages before, start with a coin toss. Heads and tails, $2 each. You work the percentage out by dividing 100 by the price, so 100 divided by 2 equals 50. Fifty plus fifty equals 100. That is a fair market with no edge to anyone.

A bookmaker's market is not framed at 100. The markets I am looking at run at roughly 120 percent. The tote market is around 118 percent. Best tote brings that back to something like 107. Top fluc, which comes from 25 minutes out on a Saturday and 20 minutes out at a provincial or country meeting, brings it back to minus 7. That extra percentage over 100 is the built-in cost you are paying, whether you think about it or not.

Why Betfair sits differently

Betfair is always around that 100 percent mark. You will see 102. You do have to pay commission, anywhere between 5 and 10 percent, which brings it back towards the field again. It is still a very good option and worth having available to you.

So before you worry about which horse to back, know what the product you are betting into is costing you. Getting the top price, using all the products available, is just as important as the horses you pick.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• "Why Is Value Easier to Find in Some Races?"
• Why Weight Is the First Thing to Check in a Melbourne Cup
• "What Does It Actually Mean When You Say a Horse Is Value?"

From the full video: Why You’re Losing on the Punt (Even When You Pick Winners)

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