"Why Is Value Easier to Find in Some Races?"

Recorded September 2025 for This Is Where Most Punters Lose – Don’t Be One of Them. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

When I look for races to attack, I am not only looking for a horse I like. I am looking at the horses I am against. The bets I feel best about are the ones where one or two runners near the top of the market have clear negatives. That is what creates the room. If the market is holding money on horses I want no part of, the horse I do like is getting more than it should. The horse I like matters. The horses I am against matter just as much.

Negative factors are half the work

In my database I have a section for negative factors. It sits apart from everything else I look at, and it does a different job. A positive read tells me a horse is worth being with. A negative read tells me a horse in the market should not be where it is. When I have one or two runners flagged that way in the same race, that is when a bet turns into something I want to push at. It is not that the horse I like has suddenly improved. It is that the pull in the market has shifted, and there is more room than there would otherwise be.

Look for disparity, not just a good horse

If you rate your own prices, this is where you should be pointing your work. Do not only look for disparity on the horse you like. Look at the next few in the market and ask whether you actually want to be against them. Finding a horse that looks a touch over the odds on its own is a thin edge. Finding a horse you like while you are heavily against a couple of the runners taking the most money is a much stronger position. The same opinion on the same horse is worth more in one race than the other, purely because of what sits around it.

Why some races are just weaker bets

Here is the test I use. If I go through the first three in the market and my honest read is that they are all reasonable chances, then the bet is weak, even if I have a slight preference. There is nothing to push against. All I am doing is backing a horse I marginally prefer in a race where the market has it about right. Compare that to a race where I am strongly against two of the top three. Now the money that is holding those two up is money I think is in the wrong place, and it has to come back somewhere. That is a race worth being confident in.

So before you have a bet, run the rest of the market through the same filter you run your own selection through. If you cannot name the horses you are against and say why, you probably do not have the race you think you have.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• Why Weight Is the First Thing to Check in a Melbourne Cup
• "What Does It Actually Mean When You Say a Horse Is Value?"
• How a Wide Barrier, Weight and Pace Map Change a Cup Chance

From the full video: This Is Where Most Punters Lose – Don’t Be One of Them

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