How a Wide Barrier, Weight and Pace Map Change a Cup Chance

Recorded November 2025 for Kingsley Bartholomew's Melbourne Cup 2025 Best Bets & Tips. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

When I work through a Melbourne Cup field, I do not stop at the rating. A horse can score nine out of 10 and still have a cross beside it, and a horse can rate seven and be one I want no part of. The three things that move me most are the barrier, the weight and the pace map. Al Rifa and Buckaroo are a good way to show how those three things pull in different directions, even when both horses rate well.

A wide barrier is not automatically a problem

Al Rifa scores nine out of 10 for me, which is a very high score. He was on my shortlist before I went through the ticks and crosses, and he is still there after it. He is drawn out wide in barrier 19. That reads badly on paper, but I look at who is steering and what the track gives him. Mark Zahra has won two Melbourne Cups. O'Brien has trained two Melbourne Cups. From 19, I expect Zahra to drop in and get a trail. There is a big long straight down that Flemington straight, so there is time to get in and get organised. A wide gate matters less when the rider is happy to take the first part of the race quietly.

Weight is the box that stays unticked

The weight is the concern with Al Rifa. That is the honest cross next to his name. I think he is big enough and strong enough to carry it, but I am not pretending it is not there. Weight is also part of why I am cooler on Buckaroo. He comes out of a slashing second in the Cox Plate behind Via Sistina and he rates seven out of 10, but he goes up two and a half kilos. I think that could be telling in the straight. People will tell me he was unlucky in last year's Cup. Moreira did go wide, but I still thought he had his chance. Plenty disagree with me on that.

The pace map decides who the trip suits

There is a bit of pace in this race. Changing of the Guard looks to go forward. I think Torrenzino goes forward. Smokin' Romans and River of Stars go forward, and those horses are drawn wide as well. That sets up an average tempo, which should suit Al Rifa sitting in behind it. Track condition goes into the same picture. There is a lot of rain tipped, so I have worked this through for about a soft seven. Buckaroo is the opposite case. He is drawn in barrier 12 and will have to go back. He needs a fast pace to win, but I am not sure he runs a strong 3,200 metres. Slow pace and he cannot win. Fast pace and he has to be a strong stayer. That is a hard pair of conditions to satisfy at once.

So take the rating as a starting point, then ask the next three questions. Can the rider get the horse into the race from that gate. Can the horse carry the weight late. Does the likely tempo suit the way it runs. If a horse fails two of those, the rating stops mattering much.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

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From the full video: Kingsley Bartholomew's Melbourne Cup 2025 Best Bets & Tips | Betting to win $1,000,000

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