Where Is the Value in a Betting Market?

Recorded August 2025 for Are You Making These Rookie Betting Mistakes on Rainy Days?. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

When I price a race, I am not paying for what a horse has already done. I am paying for what I think it is about to do. That sounds obvious, but most markets are built off the last-start figure, and that figure is already in the price. Where I find value is in a horse whose rating I expect to improve, because the market has not paid for that improvement yet. It has not happened, so there is nothing to point at, and that is exactly why the price is bigger than it should be.

Improvement is not the same as form

A horse that has run a peak rating last start is an easy horse to back. Everyone can see it. The figure is on the page. The problem is you get no reward for reading something everybody else has already read. What I am looking for is a predicted rating, not an achieved one. I want to think the horse takes a step up from where it has been rating, and then I want to check whether the market has allowed for that step. Usually it has not.

The other thing worth saying is that a horse with a tick in every box is never a good bet. If it is positive, positive, positive, positive, you are taking a short price and there is nothing left in it for you. You have to give something away somewhere. The skill is choosing which negative you are willing to wear.

The negative I am willing to wear

On the horse I was working through, the negative is race strength. I run my own race strength rating based on the horse's competitors, alongside a standardised class rating, and this one is stepping up to a new level of competition. It has been racing in lower strength races, so it is going from that up to an 87. That is a genuine query.

But look at what it buys you. If the horse had been running in 88 strength races and was dropping back to an 87, you would be taking a much shorter price. You are only getting the price you are getting because of that step up in strength. So the question is not whether class matters. Class obviously matters. The question is how much of a price you are prepared to take for it, and whether the improvement you are forecasting covers it.

Weight, class and improvement all pull against each other

This is the hard part of modelling. You are weighing race strength against weight against expected improvement, and all three move in different directions. This horse is also carrying weight, so that is a second thing working against it. Turning all of that into one predictive price for every runner in the race is not a simple task, and I do not think anybody does it perfectly.

With this one, I think he improves to a 90, and I think a 90 wins the race. It still needs the ride to go right from barrier eight. I want him to get cover, settle around sixth, peel out and go through the line. That is the bet, and I am happy for it to be a big one.

If you take one thing from this, make it the habit of asking what a horse is going to rate next start, not what it rated last start. Then ask yourself what you are giving away to get the price, and whether the improvement is worth it.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• Why Betting Early Fixed Odds Is Costing You Money
• "How Do You Handle a Losing Run?"
• "Why Do I Bet Against a Horse Dropping From 2000 to 1600 Metres?"

From the full video: Are You Making These Rookie Betting Mistakes on Rainy Days? | Max Bet Ep 5

Gamble responsibly. 18+. If gambling is a problem for you, call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au