Why Weight Is the First Thing to Check in a Melbourne Cup

Recorded August 2025 for Million Dollar Melbourne Cup 2025 Challenge Ep 1. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

Weight is the first thing I look at in a Melbourne Cup, in no particular order of importance but always early. It is a simple filter. Before I get to the trainer, the form or anything else, I want to know what each horse is being asked to carry, because over two miles the weight does more damage than most punters give it credit for. I have a rule for it, I have back tested it, and it crosses horses off the list quickly.

Why weight bites harder over 3200 metres

The plain and simple reason is the trip. It is a 3,200 metre race. The longer you run carrying eight bricks, the harder it gets. If you have to run 100 metres carrying eight bricks, that is nothing much. Run 3,200 metres with the same load and it is a different story. That is the whole idea in one line. The distance turns a small weight difference into a real one.

The other part of it is class. My theory, and the back testing supports it, is that in high class races weight matters even more. The Cup is obviously a high class race. The field is full of good horses, the margins between them are small, and the handicapper is doing his job of pulling them together. When the field is that even, the extra kilos become the thing that separates them late.

What the weights are doing

Look at the 2024 weights and you can see the top weight, Vauban, was only carrying 55 and a half kilos. That has changed. They have raised the bottom weights by a kilo, they have raised the top weights by a kilo, and on top of that there is a minimum weight of 57. So the top weight will be carrying 57 on the first Tuesday in November this year. The whole scale has shifted up, which makes the weight question more important, not less.

The test I apply

My rule is built off the average weight of the field. Take the 2024 Melbourne Cup. The average weight of the race was 51.7 kilograms. I add two kilograms to that, which gives me 53.7. From there I do not want to be backing anything carrying 54 kilos or more. In my ratings those horses get a negative point score, which in practice means they are crossed out.

Run that over the 2024 field and the top four all go. Vauban, Buckaroo, Circle of Fire and Warp Speed were all carrying 54 kilos or more, so they get an immediate cross. It takes seconds and it clears the top of the market before I have spent any time on the rest of the puzzle.

If weight can stop Phar Lap

Here is a question worth sitting with. Which horse in history has carried the most weight in a Melbourne Cup? The great Phar Lap, with 68 kilos. That is the best horse most people can name, given an impossible impost. If weight can stop Phar Lap, it can certainly stop the horses lining up now.

Work out the average weight of the field, add two kilos, and put a line through anything at or above that number. Do it first, before the form and before the trainer, and you will have a shorter and better list to work with. }

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• "What Does It Actually Mean When You Say a Horse Is Value?"
• How a Wide Barrier, Weight and Pace Map Change a Cup Chance
• "Would You Back a Horse That Hasn't Run the Distance?"

From the full video: Million Dollar Melbourne Cup 2025 Challenge Ep 1 | 7 Key Factors to Find the 2025 Cup Winner

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