Why Betting Early Fixed Odds Is Costing You Money

Recorded June 2025 for How to Punt Like a Pro in 2025 (Staking, Price, Mindset + Full Strategy Breakdown). Any figures mentioned are from that time.

Price is the pillar that decides whether the rest of your work matters. If you are not getting the top or close to the top price for your bets, you are not going to win. It does not matter how good your form is. And the biggest leak I see now is fixed odds, especially early fixed odds. The percentage in those markets is high enough that backing into it every race makes the job very hard, and most punters do it because it feels safe rather than because the numbers stack up.

The percentage in early fixed odds is very high

Early fixed odds markets run at around 130 plus. Later in the morning you might get that down to 125 if you are lucky. By the time you get to SP it might be 118, or closer to 120, which is still extremely high for an SP. Due to taxation, fixed odds is simply not as competitive as it used to be. So if you are just taking whatever the fixed price is when you see the tip, you are giving away a chunk before the gates open. You will not beat that percentage over time. It is as simple as that.

Where the bet is better placed

If you are betting late, you are generally better off with best tote with SP, or Betfair SP, or trading a bit on Betfair yourself. Have a look at your options before you commit. If Betfair is a lot longer, put it on Betfair. If the totes are a lot longer, use best tote. You can still play around with the bookies in that last ten minutes if the market is telling you something. If you see money coming on Betfair, or you see the totes shorten, or you see other indications that the price is going to firm, then jump on at the price.

The trap of betting too early

The other trap is wanting the top odds so badly that you fire early. You get the price, you feel warm and fuzzy about yourself, and you have taken on a real risk. I struggle with knowing when to bet too. The only guide I can give is that some horses are more likely to firm than others. A golden bullet is more likely to firm. If it is shorter in the bullet price than in the rated price, it is more likely to firm. We put our view in the comments on whether something is an early bet or one to wait on, and we get it wrong plenty. I only back two or three horses early, and I stuff those up sometimes and wish I had waited. I cannot know what everyone else is going to do. There are a lot of other opinions out there moving the market and I can only predict.

Waiting buys you information

That is why it is often better to wait until one or two minutes to go. You get all the market intelligence for free. You can see which horses are firming and which ones are drifting, and you can reduce your stake on the ones the market does not want. You are making the decision with more information instead of guessing an hour out.

So before your next bet, check where the best price actually is rather than defaulting to fixed odds. Then decide, honestly, whether you have a reason to be early or whether you are just chasing the warm feeling.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• "How Do You Handle a Losing Run?"
• "Why Do I Bet Against a Horse Dropping From 2000 to 1600 Metres?"
• "Is a Short-Priced Favourite Ever Value?"

From the full video: How to Punt Like a Pro in 2025 (Staking, Price, Mindset + Full Strategy Breakdown)

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