"Is a Short-Priced Favourite Ever Value?"

Kingsley on SEN radio with racing.com. Segment courtesy of SEN x racing.com.

The price is only half the question

Someone asked me whether a dollar fifty about a star horse is a bet. Is anything ever value at a dollar fifty these days? The usual answer is that a dollar fifty is value if you think the horse is a dollar twenty. That is fine as far as it goes, but it only deals with half the problem. The other half is whether the horse turns up at all. If he doesn't come, if he gets sick, if the plan changes, do you get your money back? That is the question I want answered before I do anything else.

What you are actually betting on weeks out

When you bet weeks before a race, you are not just backing the horse to win. You are backing him to stay sound, to stay healthy, to keep to the plan and to be behind the barriers on the day. Every one of those is a risk you carry for free. The market price might reflect his ability. It does not always reflect the chance that he never makes it there.

So the honest way to look at a short price early is to ask what you are being paid for the extra risk. If you think the horse is a dollar twenty in the race, and you can have a dollar fifty now, the gap has to cover more than your opinion of his ability. It has to cover the weeks in between.

Why I would rather pay more on the day

If I knew he was going to be behind the barriers, fit and healthy, I would have no problem calling him a genuine chance. Judging by the way he won first up, he looked the part. I don't think much in the race gets near him if he turns up right. That is the whole point. The word is if.

So I would rather take a dollar twenty five or a dollar thirty and know he is behind the barriers, know he is fit, know he is well, than take a dollar fifty now and hope. Yes, you are giving up some of the price. You are also giving up a risk you have no control over and no real way to measure. That trade suits me.

Some years the bookmakers refund non runners in those markets. I think that happened last year. But you should never assume it. Check the terms before you have a cent on. If your money comes back when the horse scratches, the early price is a different proposition entirely. If it doesn't, you are paying for a ticket that can be torn up without a race being run.

What to do with it

Before you take a short price early, ask two things. What are the refund rules, and what am I being paid for the time between now and the barriers. If the answer to either is not good enough, wait. A slightly shorter price on a horse you can see is fit, well and in the gates is often the better bet than a bigger number on a horse who might never get there.

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More from Kingsley

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• When Punters Were Banned From Looking at Betfair on Course

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