Why a Big Price Is Not Always a Good Price

Recorded October 2025 for Danger in the Epsom, Value in the Metrop. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

A long price looks tempting. It is not the same thing as a good price. I rate every horse in a race before I look at the market, and then I compare the two. If my rating says a horse is a bigger price than the market has it, that is an overlay. If my rating says the horse is shorter than the market, the price is not there, no matter how big the number looks on the screen. That is the whole idea behind rated prices, and it is why I can look at a horse at thirteen dollars and pass.

When thirteen dollars is not a bet

Take Vauban. I have marked him twenty six. The live price is thirteen. You might look at that and think, what a great price. I do not think it is a good price at all. He is trading at half what I have him rated, and I expect him to keep drifting. The market will find its own level, and in my view that level is further out than where it sits now.

Arapaho is the same story. I have him marked twenty six as well, and he is also thirteen in the market. The two are very similar on weight and on class. They are the class horses up in the weights, and they are also the older horses. With Arapaho I have another concern on top of the price. The predicted pace is a negative. That early speed does not suit him. He is getting to the right distance and it is his third run back, so there are things to like, but the pace setup combined with the weight is a big negative for me.

Every horse in every race has a price

At the other end, Moore Felons. He is not racing well enough for mine. Seven year old, out of form, poor last start. But I have him an overlay at ninety one, and you will probably get one hundred or one hundred and fifty to one about him. If you bet purely off prices, that is a live option. It is not a silly way to bet either. It is all about value at the end of the day, and every horse in every race can win, which means every horse has a price.

We saw a version of this in the Melbourne Cup last year. You could have had the winner a bit shorter than it paid, and if you were betting off prices you may well have thrown something at a roughie for the same reason. The logic holds up.

Why I want two ticks

I am not going to back Moore Felons, because it is not how I bet. I like the factors ticked, and I like the price ticked. I need both. The factors tell me the horse can run the race. The price tells me I am getting paid enough to take it on. One without the other is not enough for me to have a bet.

So when you see a price that looks big, do the extra step. Work out what you have the horse rated first, then compare. If the market is shorter than your number, leave it alone, even if the figure looks generous. If it is longer and the factors stack up, that is when you are getting something for your money.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• Why Betting Big Ruins Your Own Price
• Why the Tote Is Costing You More Than You Think
• "Why Is Value Easier to Find in Some Races?"

From the full video: Danger in the Epsom, Value in the Metrop | Max Bet Ep 10

Gamble responsibly. 18+. If gambling is a problem for you, call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au