"Why Would I Lay Both Favourites in the Same Race?"

Recorded November 2025 for Champions Day CHAOS - Why I'm Against Both Favourites in the Five Diamonds. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

Most punters look at the top of the market and assume the bookies have it right. I don't. There are races where I end up against both market leaders, and this is one of them. There is a stack of pace in the race, and the pace comes from the two favourites. Both of them are longer in my prices than they are with the bookies, and both of them look like drifters to me. Here is the reasoning.

The pace comes from the two favourites

When the speed in a race is coming from the horses at the top of the market, that is worth stopping on. Someone has to do the work. If the two most fancied runners are the ones who want to be forward, they are going to make it hard on each other, and they are going to be doing that carrying the expectations of the market. That is a different assignment to the one either of them has had in their recent starts.

Why I have Transatlantic well under the odds

Transatlantic has been impressive. Last start over 1600 metres he sat outside the leader and won well. Before that he got it pretty soft down at Caulfield on a leader's track. So the last two runs have come with favours attached. The market is looking at the picket fence and at the fact he has been well back in class, so I am not surprised he is favourite. I just don't think the price is right.

There are three things I don't like. He has drawn barrier 13, so Tommy Berry is going to have to use him up a bit early to get across. He has 59 kilos on his back. And he is going to 1800 metres for the first time. On pace horse, wide gate, big weight, untried trip. Any one of those on its own is manageable. All three together is how a horse gets found out late.

Rise at Dawn is in the same boat

I love it when I am against two horses who are in the market, and Rise at Dawn is the other one. He has drawn barrier one. He has led his last two and hasn't won either of them. Here he is going to face a lot more pressure early than he did in those runs, because of what is drawn around him. He is also not racing as well as he was in the autumn, and he hasn't won past 1700 metres.

So again, the market is pricing recent form and a nice looking map. I am pricing the pressure he will actually cop and the trip he has to run out.

Recent form is not the same as the right price

This is the part people miss. A horse can be in good form and still be badly under the odds. A run of wins gets a horse shortened, but the wins themselves might have come with a soft lead, a favourable track or a class drop. The question is not whether the horse has been winning. The question is whether the conditions that produced those wins are present again, and what price you are being asked to accept.

When you look at a race, go past the last three form lines. Look at the barrier, the weight, the trip and who else wants to be in front. Then form your own price and see if it matches the board.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• "Is There Any Value Left in Odds-On Favourites?"
• Why Laying on Betfair Can Be Easier Than Backing
• Why I Am Happy to Back Two Horses in the One Race

From the full video: Champions Day CHAOS - Why I'm Against Both Favourites in the Five Diamonds

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