Why a Breakneck Tempo Tells You Which Horse Was Best

Recorded November 2025 for Kingsley Bartholomew's Melbourne Cup 2025 Best Bets & Tips. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

The way a lead-up race is run changes what the form line is worth. A race run at a breakneck tempo will flatter the horses that come from the back and punish the ones that sat close to the speed. So when I go back through a Caulfield Cup or any other staying lead-up, the first thing I want to know is how it was run, not who crossed the line where. Get that part right and your opinion of half the field changes.

Tempo tells you who was best

Take River of Stars. On the screen she rates six out of ten. For me she is closer to an eight, and the reason is the Caulfield Cup. That race was run at a breakneck tempo with Adelaide River going a hundred miles an hour in front. River of Stars set forth and was the only horse near that speed to continue on and finish in the top six. She ran second. Everything else that filled the placings was coming from back in the field, which is what you would expect in a race run like that. There is also form in the UK behind Presage Nocturne worth a look.

There are crosses. The track condition is one. She has won on a wet track but she is not prolific on it. The class is a query, because she was a huge outsider in that Caulfield Cup and has not won in Australia. Her running style is normally something I am against. But I do not think this race will be run at a breakneck tempo, and she has drawn inside a lot of the horses that want to go forward. She can cross and sit third fence, or even lead, and she is well in at the weights.

Heavily backed does not mean class

Valiant King is the second favourite and everyone wants to tip him. I do not. He has only ever won two races. One was a maiden in Ireland. The other was the Bart Cummings, and he went from a huge outsider into a much shorter quote in that race. To me that is not a class horse. He rates six out of ten. He is a query on a wet track and he ran in the Cup last year and failed, so he is not strong at the trip. I am not saying he cannot win. I am saying he is under the odds.

Royal Supremacy is the same style of query. He rates seven out of ten and he ran a good race in the Caulfield Cup, but he was never really going to win it. I have a question at the two mile and a question about class. He is always thereabouts in these races without going to the next level. He has also drawn out wide, which does not help. For the win it is a no, but I would happily use him for third or fourth in first fours.

Race shape beats recent form

Torrenzino has struck form at the right time, second in the Bart Cummings and then a Geelong Cup win. He rates well. My crosses are the distance, the trainer and the class. He has also drawn wide and will have to go forward, so the race shape does not suit him. He is not a bad price for what he is, but he is a pass for me.

When you look at a form line, work out how the race was run first. Then decide which horses the tempo helped and which ones it exposed.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• Why Horses That Cannot Relax Do Not Win Cups
• "How Should You Handle a Good Run of Winners?"
• Which Lead Up Race Produces the Melbourne Cup Winner?

From the full video: Kingsley Bartholomew's Melbourne Cup 2025 Best Bets & Tips | Betting to win $1,000,000

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