What a Ten Out of Ten Melbourne Cup Runner Looks Like

Recorded November 2025 for Kingsley Bartholomew's Melbourne Cup 2025 Best Bets & Tips. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

I run every Melbourne Cup runner through a ten-factor checklist. Overseas form, lead-up races, the way the horse settles, whether it has a sprint, wet-track ability, the trip, the weight, the barrier, the jockey and the breeding. Most horses score somewhere in the middle. A few score badly enough that I can move straight past them. In this field only one horse scored ten out of ten, and it is worth walking through why, because the reasoning matters more than the mark.

The one that ticks every box

Number 17, Further, for Andrew Balding, is the only horse in the race that gets full marks from me. Look at his last two runs in the UK. He won at Newbury, then ran fourth in the St Leger behind Scandinavia, who is also in this Cup. That is a strong race and it is exactly the sort of lead-up form I want to see. The beaten margin behind a horse that is lining up here tells you plenty.

From there the rest of the list falls into place. He will settle midfield, which is where you want to be in a Cup. Go back and watch that Newbury run and you will see he has a dynamite sprint on him as well. He handles the wet. He runs 3,200. He gets in well at the weight. Barrier seven is fine. And the breeding is there for the trip, with his sire having won an Arc about five years ago and being by Galileo. There is nothing on my list I have to talk myself into.

Why American dirt form is a cross for me

Number 18, Parchment Party, is an interesting horse coming over from the United States, but he has been racing on the dirt and that is a big cross against him for me. He scored five out of ten. I am just not sure about these US horses coming over to run in a Cup. For me the form lacks a bit of class when you hold it up against the European runners. I could be wrong and we will all know on the day, but I do not need to be in that race. You cannot back them all, so that is a pass.

Most of the field is a pass

Number 19, Athabascan, is another one I leave alone. Declan Bates is fresh off a big win, but I cannot see him doing the same thing in the Melbourne Cup. Four out of ten. He is just not travelling well enough for me. That is the point of scoring every runner. The checklist is not there to find you a winner in every race, it is there to strip out the horses that only tick three or four boxes and leave you with the ones that tick nearly all of them.

Build your own list of factors, score every runner honestly, and be comfortable passing on most of the field. When a horse ticks every single box, you know why you are on it.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• Can a Horse That Has Never Run 3200 Metres Stay?
• Why a Breakneck Tempo Tells You Which Horse Was Best
• Why Horses That Cannot Relax Do Not Win Cups

From the full video: Kingsley Bartholomew's Melbourne Cup 2025 Best Bets & Tips | Betting to win $1,000,000

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