Why On-Pace Runners Struggle to Win a Melbourne Cup

Recorded November 2025 for Kingsley Bartholomew's Melbourne Cup 2025 Best Bets & Tips. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

Winning a Melbourne Cup from on the pace is one of the hardest things to do in racing. Two miles, a big field, and a horse doing the work out in front. I will consider a front-runner, but only if three things line up. Class. Strong lead-up form. And the sectionals to keep finishing off at the end. Take one of those away and I am happy to pass, no matter how good the map looks on paper.

What a front-runner needs before I back one

Class comes first. A horse on the speed has nowhere to hide. He cannot get a soft run in the ruck or wait for a gap. He has to carry the field along and then hold them off, and that takes an ability level most of these stayers do not have. Then I want to see the lead-up races. Not just a nice run somewhere, but the sort of form lines that tick the box in a Cup. Finally I want the sectionals. If a horse is putting pace into the race but slowing up late in his normal runs, he is not suddenly going to do it better over a longer trip against better horses.

Smokin' Romans is the type I am talking about. He is going to go forward. But for me he does not have the class, he does not have the great lead-up races that would have got the tick, and he does not have the sectionals to finish it off. That is a no. Changing of the Guard is the same story, only weaker again. He will go forward and put pace into the race, but there is a query at the distance and he lacks a bit of class. A definite pass.

The one who was unlucky

Absurd is a really interesting runner and rates well with me. The breeding gets across the trip and the class gets across the trip. Go back and watch the aerial vision of his run in the previous Melbourne Cup and you see a horse who was genuinely unlucky. I think he should have run a place. His Caulfield Cup run reads better than the finishing position too. He ran seventh, was blocked for a run a little bit, and should have finished closer. There is no way Mullens had him at his best for that day either. He will improve on that run, and at long odds I think he is a very good bet.

Why an overseas runner can be worth including

Flatten the Curve is a different case. He has pretty good overseas ratings and he likes a wet track, which is a live chance on Cup day. The obvious knock is that he has not had a lead-up run in Australia, so he is a bit of an unknown. I would not completely rule him out on that. If you are playing multiples, I would not tell you to leave him out. At big odds I could easily throw something on him, because those overseas ratings are not too bad.

So when you go through your field, start with running style, then ask whether the horse has earned the right to lead. If he has not, cross him off and spend your time on the ones who have.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

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From the full video: Kingsley Bartholomew's Melbourne Cup 2025 Best Bets & Tips | Betting to win $1,000,000

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