Why Is a Horse's Best Run Sometimes at the Wrong Distance?

Recorded July 2025 for Max Bet Ep 1. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

A horse can run the best figures of its life at a distance that does not suit it. Most people see the run, look at the distance and move on. I do the opposite. If a horse sets peak ratings while it is out of its comfort zone, and then comes back to the trip where it does its best work, that is a horse going forward. The figures tell you where the horse is at. The distance tells you the figures were set the hard way.

A peak rating over the wrong trip

The example I keep coming back to is Deep Respect at Doomben. Last start Deep Respect ran over 1,600 metres. That was the first time the horse had been over that trip, and it ran its fastest time rating, its fastest CSW rating and its fastest last 600 rating. So two peak ratings, set over what I think is an unsuitable distance for it.

The tempo did not suit either. The horse got back in the field over the mile, then produced the best last 600 of its career. That is the part that matters. It is not that the horse failed at the mile. It is that the horse was good enough at the mile to run career-best numbers while everything about the race was against it.

Now it comes back to 1,350 metres at Doomben, which is its wheelhouse. Deep Respect has only ever won five races, but four of them have been at Doomben, and three from six have come over the 1,350. So you have a horse in career-best form being dropped back to the exact conditions where it has done its winning.

Where I draw the line on on-pace horses

The race pressure in that race is fast. There is a lot of speed on. Normally, high pressure makes me cautious about horses racing on the pace, because they get run off their feet and the closers come over the top of them. But it does not concern me that much here, and the reason is the distance.

I draw the line with sprint races at about 1,350. At 1,400 or more, if the pressure is really high, faster or very fast, I want horses that settle off the speed a bit. At 1,350 the race is short enough that on-pace runners can still hold on. The perfect spot over 1,350 in a race like that is probably around fifth, sixth, seventh or eighth. That is where I expect these horses to sit. Sultry Siren has drawn a bit wide, so that one may go back further.

Deep Respect has got that sprint at the end, and the last 600 rating over the mile is the proof of it.

When you see a career-best figure at an odd trip, do not write the run off. Check whether the horse is heading back to the distance and track where it has already won, and check whether the tempo will suit this time. That combination is worth far more than the finishing position last start.

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More from Kingsley

• "If My Horse Wins, What Runs Second and Third?"
• How to Budget Your Betting Across a Big Carnival Week
• Why the Leader Is So Hard to Beat on a Heavy Track

From the full video: Max Bet Ep 1 | Finding Bullets

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