How to Budget Your Betting Across a Big Carnival Week

Recorded October 2025 for Don't Make These COSTLY Mistakes on Derby Day. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

One little word of warning, and it has happened to me plenty of times. You get too excited at a carnival. You over race. Derby day comes around, you do your money, and then you have run out of bullets before the biggest races of the year. You end up sitting on the sidelines for Melbourne Cup, or having a nibble when you wanted a real bet, and you are all over the shop. The fix is not complicated. Budget it out across the days before the carnival starts.

Split the bank before the first race

If you are punting over the four days, work out what you are prepared to outlay in total and then divide it across those four days. If you are only having a go on the Saturday and Cup day, split it in half, or at least make sure there is something set aside for the second day. The point is that you decide this when you are calm, not when you are three races into Derby day and chasing.

That way, if you have a strip out on Derby day, it does not matter as much. You still have enough left for Cup day and Oaks day and whatever else you are playing. We have all been guilty of blowing it all on one day. It is an easy trap because the racing is good and the fields are big and every race looks like an opportunity.

A big day can go back just as fast

The other side of it is the fill up. You can have a very good day at a carnival. But if you do, you often knock it straight off the next day. The bank gets bigger, the bet sizes creep up with it, and suddenly you are punting like a different person. Keeping your head after a win is just as important as keeping it after a loss. If you stick to the plan you set, you give yourself a much better chance.

These meetings are genuinely hard

Do not underestimate the Flemington meetings. They are hard races. A lot of the horses come in with different form lines to Flemington and they are set for these races specifically, so the usual comparisons do not always hold up. You can often find roughies winning.

When I am looking at that long Flemington straight, I want horses with acceleration that are strong at the distance. Usually they come down the centre, or they sit just off a faster tempo and power through late. That is the shape I am hunting for. But even when you like your chances, the difficulty of the racing is another reason to spread your outlay rather than load up on one day.

So before the carnival starts, write down what you are prepared to outlay and how it is divided across the days. Then hold to it, win or lose. It is a small bit of admin that keeps you in the game for the races you actually care about.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• Why the Leader Is So Hard to Beat on a Heavy Track
• "Why Did This Horse Get Beaten Three Lengths?"
• "Is It A Negative When Horses Run Past After The Post?"

From the full video: Don't Make These COSTLY Mistakes on Derby Day

Gamble responsibly. 18+. If gambling is a problem for you, call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au