"If My Horse Wins, What Runs Second and Third?"

Recorded November 2025 for Champions Day CHAOS - Why I'm Against Both Favourites in the Five Diamonds. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

Most punters build a trifecta by picking a few horses they like and hoping. There is a better way in. If you stand a horse out to win, you have already decided how the race was run. That race shape suits some horses and ruins others. So instead of guessing at the placegetters, work backwards from the winner you have nominated and ask which other horses were helped by the same scenario.

Standing a horse out tells you how the race was run

Take Militarized. We do not know that Militarized wins the race. But when you are playing exotics and you stand him out for first, on that ticket he has won it. So ask yourself the next question. If Militarized wins this race, what has happened in front of him?

He is drawn eleven. If they go slow, he probably does not win. If they go fast and they burn up in front, he slingshots down the middle of the track and gets there. So by standing him out you have not just picked a winner, you have picked a race. The tempo was strong, the leaders took each other on, and the horses coming from behind were the ones getting the run of it.

That tells you who runs second and third

Once you know the race was run fast, you know which other horses were suited. I think Firestorm is suited by that. Vivier is drawn off the track and is definitely suited by that. So it is not only that I like those horses to win, I like those three to run a place in that same scenario.

From there the ticket builds itself. You can box the quinella or box the trifecta with the three of them. You can play the first four and put Militarized in for first and second, and the others in for second and third. Play around with the structure however you like, but the horses in it all belong to the same story about how the race was run.

The other scenario gives you a second group

The honest part is the race might not be run that way. They might go slower than expected. If they do, the three horses that need tempo can all run flat, and a different group comes into it. Bullet Point is drawn barrier two, and Rise at Dawn will be in much the same spot. I think Rise at Dawn probably leads and Bullet Point sits behind. In a slowly run race those two can fill the exotics together.

So you end up with groups. A group of horses that are well suited to running first, second and third if the race is run hard, and a group that comes into it if the race is run soft. Boxing them up in a quinella, trifecta or first four is just a simple way of backing one of those scenarios rather than a random collection of names.

Before you fill out a trifecta, pick the scenario first. Decide how the race has to be run for your top selection to win, then add the horses that the same run suits. It makes the ticket easier to build and easier to explain to yourself afterwards.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• How to Budget Your Betting Across a Big Carnival Week
• Why the Leader Is So Hard to Beat on a Heavy Track
• "Why Did This Horse Get Beaten Three Lengths?"

From the full video: Champions Day CHAOS - Why I'm Against Both Favourites in the Five Diamonds

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