Why Is a Horse $2 When the Ratings Don't Support It?

Recorded September 2025 for Max Bet Ep.8: The $2 Melbourne Cup Clue + Best Early Bet in WA. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

Every so often you look at a market and the favourite makes no sense on the numbers. Sir Delius is a good example. He does not feature at the top of my ratings. He sits third, behind Zardozi and behind Middle Earth. On class, speed, weight and rating he is second behind Desert Lightning, with Land Legend in there for third. His form factors are strong and I have no query with him, but he is not rating through the roof. So why is he $2? The answer is expected improvement, and getting that part of a market right is the difference between winning and losing.

Everyone knows what a horse has done

Past form is public. Anyone can pull up the ratings and see what a horse has already run. That is the easy part, and it is priced into every market on the board. What is not public is what a horse is about to do. That is the bit the market is working on when it puts a horse like Sir Delius at $2 while the raw numbers point somewhere else.

With Sir Delius, the Brisbane runs are factored in, and the Chelmsford was obviously a strong race. Race strength across the field is fairly level, so there is not much to separate them there. The market is not saying he has already proven himself the best horse in the race. It is saying it expects him to be better than he has been. That is real, and it happens. The same applies to a horse like Private Harry or Briarcer over in Sydney at Randwick.

Where the ratings still help you

Expected improvement does not make ratings useless. It changes what you use them for. Take Zardozi. The old ratings are great. There is a 105 in there. First up, though, the number is 85, and 1,500 into 1,800 was unsuitable. Zardozi is clearly set for bigger things and I think she will still need the run second up.

But here is why those old numbers matter. If you are backing a roughy, you want to see that the horse is capable of winning the race if everything is right. Zardozi can do that. If she puts it together and wins, I would not be surprised. I would be sitting there saying too good, I saw it coming. A lot of the others in that race cannot say the same. Then look at the other side of it. Zardozi has not won in her last 15 starts. Zero wins from 15. That is why she is 20 to one.

Framing markets is about the gap

If you frame your own markets, this is the piece that decides your year. You can be accurate on what has happened and still be badly wrong on price, because the market moves on the gap between what a horse has done and what it is about to do. Sitting a horse where the ratings put it, with no thought given to improvement, will leave you fighting the market on the wrong horses.

So when a favourite looks short against your numbers, do not assume the market is wrong. Work out what improvement it is pricing in, then decide whether you agree. That is the question worth spending your time on.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• Why Betting Against Top Weights Pays in Group Races
• "What Should I Do When My Punting Gets Out of Control?"
• "Why Do So Many Group 1 Favourites Get Beaten?"

From the full video: Max Bet Ep.8: The $2 Melbourne Cup Clue + Best Early Bet in WA

Gamble responsibly. 18+. If gambling is a problem for you, call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au