Why Betting Against Top Weights Pays in Group Races

Recorded October 2025 for Danger in the Epsom, Value in the Metrop. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

When I run a class speed weight rating over a high class race, the weight does a lot of the heavy lifting. It drags the top weighted horses down and it pushes the lightly weighted horses up. That is why a horse like Vauban, who probably has the highest actual time rating in the race, does not come out on top once weight is factored in. Betting against high weights in high class races is one of my favourite things to do, and the reason is simple. The horses at the bottom of the weights in those races are still very good horses.

Why the spread matters more in a group race

This is where a group race differs from a midweek race. Take a Monday meeting at Wagga or somewhere similar. There might be a spread of weights there too, but the horses down the bottom usually do not have the rating to win the race anyway. Sometimes they do, but in general the weight relief is not covering a gap that can actually be bridged. In a group one it is a different story. Everything in the field is talented. So when the ratings lift a horse like Wycliffe, or Glory Days, or Jujubebo because they are getting into the race well at the weights, you are not backing an outclassed horse hoping for a miracle. You are backing a genuine group performer with a weight advantage, and you can usually get real value about them.

The top weight has to be worth the weight

The other side of it is the horse at the top. Carrying top weight in a group race is a genuine job. So I want to see a horse who is in form and going the right way before I accept that impost. Vauban has a class edge and he has the rating to win the race. On raw ability, he belongs. But the weight is a real turn off for me, and it is not the only thing working against him.

When I will not forgive a bad run

You will often hear me say you must forgive runs. Most of the time that is right. Horses have bad days, races do not pan out, and punters throw away good form because of one performance that meant nothing. But an eight year old is a little bit different. Vauban had a good first up run fresh, then a second up run that was really bad. With an older horse, when they go out of form they generally stay out of form, unless there is a real reason to think they are about to hit form again. I look at Vauban and I cannot find that reason. Nothing in the setup tells me he is suddenly going to turn it around and win this. So the class edge does not save him for me. Top weight, eight years old, and a bad run behind him is three strikes.

So when you are looking at a high class race, start with the weight spread. Work out who it is pulling down and who it is lifting, then check whether the top weight has the current form to justify the job in front of them. If they do not, the value is almost always further down the weights.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• "What Should I Do When My Punting Gets Out of Control?"
• Why Is a Horse $2 When the Ratings Don't Support It?
• "Why Do So Many Group 1 Favourites Get Beaten?"

From the full video: Danger in the Epsom, Value in the Metrop | Max Bet Ep 10

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