"Why Do So Many Group 1 Favourites Get Beaten?"

Recorded September 2025 for Why Group 1 Favourites Fail + How to Reverse Engineer Big Market Moves. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

Across one Friday night and Saturday of group racing, eight favourites in group ones, twos and threes got beaten. Not one or two. Eight. When I went back through them I could hardly believe it myself. But when you break each run down, there is a pattern sitting there in plain sight, and it says more about how these horses are being campaigned than it does about how good they are.

Run through the list

Friday night gave us Vinrock, Ezra, Treasure the Moment, Lady Shenandoah and Oh Too Good. All beaten. Saturday we had Zuzia Kibar beaten, then Tempted beaten, then Rise at Dawn running second. Manal won her race, so we can leave that one alone. Vinrock was third up off a win. Ezra won first up, then got beaten second up and third up. Treasure the Moment was second up off that Memsie where she had every favour and sat the fence. Lady Shenandoah flashed home over a trip that was short of her best, went to Moonee Valley for the first time out of a bad barrier, and got beaten second up. Oh Too Good, second up, beaten. Zuzia Kibar has been up since May. Tempted won well first up, then drew wider, had to do more work and stepped up to 1400 metres for the first time. Rise at Dawn, second up off a good first up run.

Why second up keeps catching people out

This is the same thing I was talking about last spring. A horse wins first up or flashes home first up, everyone decides it is a superstar, and second up it goes around under the odds. A lot of the time those horses can get beaten. Some of them peak first up, go flat second up, then come back and win third up. Via Sistina did exactly that last year. It does not mean the horse is no good. It means the setup was not right that day, and the market had already paid for the run before it happened.

That is where the value has gone. It is not in the obvious horse. Punting the horse that just won first up because it looked good is not the edge people think it is. The edge is in that same horse next start, when the barrier, the trip and the run all line up.

Do not sack any of them

There is a reason these horses were favourite. They are very good horses with high ratings, and they will win races when the setup suits. The other part is knowing what a horse is being set for. Lady Shenandoah is likely being aimed at the Everest, so a Moonee Valley run from a wide gate out of her best trip tells you very little. Same with a horse like Vauban, good first up, failed second up, being aimed at the Melbourne Cup. You have to work out when the horse is meant to be peaking, because on that day it will often be very short.

Black Caviar and Winx just kept winning. They were once in a generation. These eight are not that. They will run in and they will run out.

So do not write any of them off. The bookmakers are getting the results now. In two or three weeks that stops, the good things start winning again, the form settles, and these horses reach their right trips and the races they were always set for.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• Why Betting Against Top Weights Pays in Group Races
• "What Should I Do When My Punting Gets Out of Control?"
• Why Is a Horse $2 When the Ratings Don't Support It?

From the full video: Why Group 1 Favourites Fail + How to Reverse Engineer Big Market Moves

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