"Why Does the Price You Take Decide If You Win or Lose?"

Recorded September 2025 for Why You’re Losing on the Punt (Even When You Pick Winners). Any figures mentioned are from that time.

Most punters think the hard part is picking the horse. It isn't. The hard part is the price you take. I learnt that at the racetrack when I was 17 or 18, working on the ground for my brother Sean. My job was watching the prices, and Sean drilled into me that the number you accept is the whole game, whether you are punting or bookmaking. It is no different to a stock market. You do not want to be buying stock at the worst possible price. You want to buy low and sell high. Horse racing works the same way, and plenty of good form work gets quietly destroyed by bad prices.

What a firming market looks like

Take Private Eye. I backed it in the morning at $3.40 and $3.30. Look at the fluctuations through the day. It opened around $2.40, drifted out to $3.40 and $3.30, then got crunched. It kept coming, $3, $2.80, and lower again. The finishing prices on Betfair were around $2.26 and $2.28, best tote was $2.20, and the bookies were mostly between $2.10 and $2.20. Same horse. Same form. Two completely different bets depending on when you pressed the button.

The other horse I backed in that race was Pericles, the winner. I waited on that one and averaged around $11 on Betfair. So I handled that race well price wise. I do not handle them all that well. I make mistakes taking prices too. But the price is the key, and that is what I am talking about here, not the result.

Why price beats form over time

People get so focused on the selection. I like this one, no, I like that one. How you pick matters, of course it does. But think about it this way. If you threw the form out the window and backed every favourite, and you were consistently getting $3.40 and $3.30 about horses that start $2.20, you would finish with money. You cannot actually do that, and I am not suggesting you try. I am making a point about where the edge comes from.

When I test firming horses with the TAB, backing at top fluctuation, the big firmers that get crunched three or four turns, that shows a return of about 30 per cent on turnover. You cannot get those prices in real life. What you can do is try to get the best price available to you.

Shop for your odds

A lot of punters in 2025 do not seem to care what price they take. They should. If you walk into a supermarket for a couple of cabbages, one shop might have them at $2.80, another at $2.90, another at $2.50. If you are watching your money, you go to the cheaper one. Betting is the same and people ignore it.

The common line is that it does not matter, you are happy just to back a winner. If you are serious about punting, it will catch up with you. If you are taking $2 or $2.10 about a horse you could have had at $3.30, and you do that week after week, it will eventually lead to you losing. It does not matter how good your form is.

So before your next bet, look at what is on offer across the board and ask whether the price is worth the risk. That one habit does more for your long term position than another hour on the form.

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More from Kingsley

• Why Betting Against Top Weights Pays in Group Races
• "What Should I Do When My Punting Gets Out of Control?"
• Why Is a Horse $2 When the Ratings Don't Support It?

From the full video: Why You’re Losing on the Punt (Even When You Pick Winners)

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