Why Betfair SP Is the Hardest Price in Racing to Beat

Recorded November 2025 for 10 Betting Systems That Actually Work. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

Betfair is an exchange. You bet against other punters, and you can place a bet at any time you like. When I look at results struck at Betfair SP, the ROI sits at virtually zero before commission, and Betfair take somewhere between about three and a half per cent and up to around ten per cent depending on turnover. Take six per cent out and you are looking at minus six. That is not a knock on the exchange. It is the clearest evidence I have that the Betfair starting price is the most efficient price available anywhere in racing.

Why the exchange starting price is so hard to beat

By the time the gates open, everything is in the market. The smart money has gone in. The pros have had their bet. Every punter who wanted to do something has done it, and all of that money has shaped the market into something very, very accurate. There is not much left in it. That is why a set of tips struck at Betfair SP lands so close to breaking even before commission. The market has already worked out what the horse is worth.

Compare that to an opening price. The TKZ opening price goes out at 9:30 or 10am depending on when it is released, and the same tips struck at that price come in around minus eighteen per cent. On the face of it that number looks worse. But that is a far more inefficient market. There are mistakes in that minus eighteen. There are holes in it. Go back further again to the TAB opening prices, which go up on the Wednesday for a Saturday race, and it is more inefficient still. The tote sits somewhere in between, and because the pools are fairly small these days you can find inefficiencies there too.

The trade-off you cannot avoid

Here is the catch. Betting early means betting into a much bigger percentage. You are often dealing with a 118 or 120 per cent market, so you have to be twenty per cent better than the market just to stand still, and being twenty per cent better is hard. On track it was always around 110, and out of the gate you might see 108 or 106. Less percentage to beat. But that tighter percentage comes at the end, when the market is at its most accurate.

People say you cannot get on. You can get on. You can get on at Betfair SP, or on Betfair with volume late. The problem is the market is accurate by then. Everyone wants to get on early when the market is not accurate, which is the smart play, but the bookies play smart too and they limit you early. So the only times you can get set for real money are the times when the price is closest to the truth.

What that leaves you with

It comes down to two choices. Bet early, bet into more percentage, accept lower volume, and win a higher ROI. Or bet late, bet bigger, bet into less percentage, and accept a lesser ROI. That is why volume punting is so hard now. Neither option is wrong, but you cannot have both at once.

Work out which of those two you are actually doing, then judge your own results against that measure rather than against some price you were never going to get.

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