Where the Value Sits: Early Prices or Starting Price?

Recorded December 2025 for 6 Months of TKZ: The REAL Results Exposed + What's Coming in 2026 🔥. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

Where the Value Sits Early Prices or Starting Price

When I run the numbers across different ways of taking a price, the same thing keeps showing up. The value is earlier in the market, not later. Betfair sits at plus 2% before commission, which means after commission you are still losing. Opening price, when the form goes out, is also plus 2%. Best tote comes in at plus seven and a half percent. Best tote with SP is minus 1.6%. They are small numbers, and I am not pretending otherwise, but the direction they point in is clear. Getting the price matters as much as picking the horse.

What those numbers are telling us

A winning selection taken at the wrong time can turn into a losing one. That is the whole point of the best tote comparison. Plus seven and a half percent at best tote, minus 1.6% once you are taking SP. Same horses, different outcome, purely on when and where you got set.

That is why the first set of markets matters. Ours start coming out around 10AM. They are not all out at 10, but between ten and half past they are pretty much there. If you can get on around then, and you can find odds boosts or shop around for better, that is profitable territory. Leave it until the jump and you are handing back the edge.

How to work the price

If you have the time, you do not just fire and forget. You sit and watch the prices. You wait until the price firms and starts embedding. I am talking about twenty five minutes out, when there is a bit of volume in the Betfair market and things have settled down.

Then you look for the moments where the market moves against the firm price. Say an official tip is four into 3.20. Somebody tries to push the market back out on Betfair and it drifts to four. That is when you chime in and have something on. You are not picking a new horse, you are picking off a price that has been offered back to you.

Shopping the corporates

The same thing happens with the corporate bookies. If a horse is four into 3.20, you will often see it firming and you can still get on at 3.80 or four somewhere. It is not as easy as it once was, but there are still a few who will bet their own opinion. Unibet are off and out. Ladbrokes are off and out. Boombet are off and out as well and will have opinions. There are not many left who take an opinion, but the ones who do will sometimes be out of line with everyone else, and that is where you get your extra.

So the routine is simple enough. Be there when the markets come out in the morning, take what is on offer if the price is right, and if you have got time to watch, wait for the market to settle and pick off the moments where somebody pushes your horse back out.

If you take nothing else from this, take this. Do the work on the price, not just the selection. Same horses, same races, better result.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• "Why Is the Favourite Under the Odds?"
• Why Betfair SP Is Harder to Beat Than Bookmaker Prices
• "How Much Should I Stake on My Second-Tier Bets?"

From the full video: 6 Months of TKZ: The REAL Results Exposed + What's Coming in 2026 🔥

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