Why Betfair SP Is Harder to Beat Than Bookmaker Prices
My same selections return a much smaller edge at Betfair SP than at top bookmaker price, and commission is why.
Recorded November 2025 for My Cup Week Reality.... Any figures mentioned are from that time.
When I check how my selections are going, I like to run them two ways. Once at the best bookmaker price available, and once at Betfair starting price. The results are not the same. At top price the numbers sit well in front of the market. At Betfair SP the same horses return a lot less, and that is before commission comes out. Betfair SP is a very accurate reflection of where a horse should be, and that is exactly why it is harder to beat.
The same selections, two very different returns
One set of selections came back at 5.7 per cent on turnover at top price. That is more than 10 per cent in front of the curve. Run the same horses at Betfair SP and the return drops to 2.7 per cent pre commission. So the gap to the Betfair market is only a few per cent, and by my rough reckoning it lands somewhere around three and a half once you allow for what you pay. Same horses, same races, same work behind them. The only thing that changed was the price I was credited with.
That is the whole point. Betfair SP is close to the true price of a horse. It is formed by people with opinions and money, right at the jump. Beating it consistently is a much bigger task than picking off the best price on offer with a bookmaker before the market settles.
Why picking off the top bookie price matters
If you are taking Betfair SP, you are taking an accurate price and then paying commission on top of it. That comes straight out of the edge. If you are picking off the top bookmaker price, you are getting the benefit of a price that has not yet been corrected, and you are not handing a slice back.
The official selections show the same thing over a long run. Across 6,885 races we have tipped in, there have been 1,918 winners. That is a 27 per cent strike rate for a 5.3 per cent profit at top price. The number one selections are sitting around plus five. Those are the numbers at the best available price. Shift the pricing method and the whole picture tightens up.
The gap between the horses I like and the ones I lay
The lays are a useful check on all of this. Around 4,500 lay bets at top price come in at minus 13.6 per cent. So the horses I do not like lose around 13 per cent, and the horses I do like return around plus five. That is an 18 per cent spread between the two groups.
That spread tells me the ratings are separating horses properly. I would love the curve to be better than it is, but it is good and it is heading in the right direction.
If you are betting my selections, the price you get is doing a lot of the work. Chase the best available price rather than settling for the starting price, and understand that a small edge over Betfair SP is still a real edge, just a thinner one once commission is paid.
Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.
More from Kingsley
- "How Much Should I Stake on My Second-Tier Bets?"
- How to Stake Four Runners in the Same Race
- Why Fewer Bets May Be the Future of Punting
From the full video: My Cup Week Reality...
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