"Why Is the Favourite Under the Odds?"

Recorded October 2025 for Don't Make These COSTLY Mistakes on Derby Day. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

When I look at a favourite, the first question I ask is whether the race will be run to suit it. In this case I don't think Observer is good odds, and it has very little to do with the horse's ability. It is about pressure. Observer is going from 2000 metres at Moonee Valley to 2500 metres at Flemington for the first time, and there are horses drawn wide who are going to go forward and make the tempo faster than anything it has faced.

The step up in trip changes everything

I am not saying Observer can't handle pressure. What I am saying is that 2500 metres at Flemington is a completely different story to 2000 metres at the Valley. It is a new trip and a new track shape. A horse can look comfortable in front over a shorter distance at one track and then find the last part of the race much harder when the trip goes up and the tempo lifts. That is the risk you are taking when you back a short-priced leader stepping up in distance for the first time.

Wide barriers force the pressure on

There are two horses out wide that concern me. High Vol is drawn in 15 and will come in to about 11. Matsuda is drawn in 19 and will probably come in to about 15. Both are going forward. I don't think either of them can win the race. That is not the point. The point is what they do to the tempo while they are trying.

At 2500 metres at Flemington there is a very short run to the first turn, and horses need to get across. If you are drawn wide and you want to go forward, you cannot ease into it. You have to push up early. So those two will go forward and they will put pressure into the race, and the horse that wears it is the one in front. That is Observer.

What it means for the horses behind

A faster tempo does not just hurt the leader. It helps the horses sitting off it. Zara is drawn in barrier four and I actually don't think he will lead. I think he will sit third or fourth on the fence on a faster tempo. That is a much better place to be. You get cover, you get the run of the race, and you get a leader in front of you doing the work.

Had Observer been drawn wide as well, I would be even more heavily against it, because then it would have to work to get across on top of everything else. As it stands, it still has to do the leading in a race where two horses are being forced to press it early.

So the reason I rate the favourite as poor value is not the horse. It is the shape of the race around it. When you are assessing a short-priced leader, look at who is drawn wide, look at where the first turn is, and ask yourself who is going to be doing the pushing. If the answer is the favourite, the price usually does not reflect the risk.

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From the full video: Don't Make These COSTLY Mistakes on Derby Day

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