"Why Do You Still Lose Taking Top Price on Every Horse?"
Backing every runner at the top corporate price still loses about 5%, and that is the benchmark you have to beat.
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"Can You Find Value in Following Jockeys?"
Following jockeys sounds like an edge, but the market already prices riding ability in, so the value mostly disappears.
"Is Strike Rate or Return on Turnover More Important?"
Why a 7.8 per cent strike rate can beat a 27 per cent strike rate, and why return on turnover matters more than picking winners.
Why On-Pace Runners Struggle to Win a Melbourne Cup
Why front-runners rarely win a Melbourne Cup, and what an on-pace horse needs before I will back one.
Why One Race Can Decide a Whole Spring Carnival
How to find the one lead-up race that sets up a whole spring carnival, and why the Turnbull is the run I keep coming back to.
What a Ten Out of Ten Melbourne Cup Runner Looks Like
How I score Melbourne Cup runners out of ten, and why only one horse in the field ticks every box.
Can a Horse That Has Never Run 3200 Metres Stay?
How I judge whether a horse that has never run 3200 metres will actually stay the Melbourne Cup trip.