"Why Do You Still Lose Taking Top Price on Every Horse?"

Recorded October 2025 for Losing Is a Gift: Why Punters Must Embrace the Pain. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

I ran every horse in my database through one simple test. Take the top price on offer and back the lot. That is 51,000 bets. The result is a loss of 5.2 per cent. Not a small sample, not a bad run, just the market doing what the market does. If you take the best available price on every runner and still go backwards at five per cent, that is the benchmark. Anything you do has to beat that number before you are in front.

What the high price actually means

The way I measure it, the high price is the average of the highest corporate price from around the time form comes out through to jump time. So a horse might open at $3.30 and show a high of $3.40 across that window. That is not one bookie's fleeting flash price. It is the average of the best price available across the market over hours of betting, and it is already quite hard to get in practice.

The staking is straightforward too. Every bet is sized to win $200 with a maximum outlay of $100. Same rules for every runner, no picking and choosing. Run it across the whole database and you land on that 5.2 per cent loss. That is how tight the market is now. There are not a lot of loose balls out there.

What I have left out of the test

I want to be clear about what is not in that number. I have not included Betfair odds. I have not included best tote. I have not included early prices before form is released, and there are other ways to get on at a top price outside my window. I have not included any boosts or promotions, because plenty of punters do not get offered those and I do not get any myself. I have also left out the odd bookie who sits way out on his own on a price, because that is not a realistic price to get set at volume.

Add the ones you can get and the picture improves a little. If a bookmaker hands you a boost or a bonus, use it. Get your odds up wherever you can. Best tote is a reasonable set and forget option, more so in the country races than the city.

Where starting prices and Betfair sit

If the top price still loses at five per cent, the final price is worse again. Starting prices sit at around 120 per cent, so backing at SP is a long way behind the high price. Betfair SP comes in at around 100 to 101 per cent, though you have to factor in commission on top of that. Even so, with the fluctuations you get in the market, Betfair SP is often a more accurate guide than the high price, because plenty of horses that are genuinely fancied firm right through.

Use this as a measuring stick rather than a reason to stop. Know what the market gives you for free, take the best price you can get, use any boosts that come your way, and understand that your edge has to be big enough to clear five per cent before anything else starts to matter.

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More from Kingsley

• "Can You Find Value in Following Jockeys?"
• "Is Strike Rate or Return on Turnover More Important?"
• Why On-Pace Runners Struggle to Win a Melbourne Cup

From the full video: Losing Is a Gift: Why Punters Must Embrace the Pain | The Grind Ep.10

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