Why Weight Is the First Thing to Check in a Melbourne Cup
How I use weight to rule horses out of the Melbourne Cup before I look at anything else.
Video
"What Does It Actually Mean When You Say a Horse Is Value?"
When I call a horse value, I mean two things have lined up: the form factors and the price I can get.
How a Wide Barrier, Weight and Pace Map Change a Cup Chance
Why a wide barrier, extra weight and the likely tempo matter more than a runner's rating in a Melbourne Cup.
"Would You Back a Horse That Hasn't Run the Distance?"
An unproven distance isn't an automatic knock. Here's what I look for before backing a horse over a trip it hasn't run.
How Much Should You Have on One Race?
How much of your bank should go on a single race, and why I cap the total outlay even when I have two runners in it.
Where Is the Value in a Betting Market?
Why the value in a betting market sits with horses predicted to improve, not horses that have already run their peak figure.
Why Betting Early Fixed Odds Is Costing You Money
Early fixed odds markets carry a huge percentage, so taking the first price you see usually costs you more than it makes.