Why Long Shots Can Show a Better Return With Fewer Winners
A low strike rate at big odds can return more than a high strike rate at short odds, and small samples do not prove much.
Latest
How a Cruising and Acceleration Rating Works in Race Analysis
What a cruising rating and an acceleration rating actually tell you, and why raw ratings can flatter a lightly weighted horse.
Why a Fast Last 200 Can Be Completely Misleading
A big last-200 figure off a crawling early tempo doesn't tell you much, so here's how I read acceleration in context.
"Why Do I Look for a Peak Rating in the Form?"
Why I hunt for a peak rating in the form, and why two horses on the same number can be heading in opposite directions.
Balaklava Race 9 Preview: Pace, Tips And Rated Prices
Balaklava Race 9 preview: a 98.7% pressure mile, who maps forward, Kingsley's top four and the rated prices that disagree with the market.
How Much Do You Move Your Own Price When You Bet?
Betting at a high level shortens the very odds you need, and I estimate my own market impact at three to four per cent.
"Why Can't a Professional Punter Get a Bet On?"
Why a professional punter can only get a few hundred dollars on, and why the 9am minimum bet rule should start earlier.