Grafton Race 6 Preview: Rated Prices, Pace And Tips
Grafton race 6 preview: a very fast tempo at 87% pressure, Kingsley's top four with rated prices, and the metric standouts across the 11-horse field.
Eleven go around in Grafton's Race 6 at 5:30pm AEDT for $27,000, and the shape of it is the story: a very fast tempo with the pressure gauge reading 87.34 per cent. This one is free to view fully rated on theking.zone today.
The race
Good surface, true rail, thunderstorms about — conditions worth watching, but the framework is the speed. The field spans 64.5kg at the top down to 55.5kg, and it is the heavily weighted on-pace runners who carry the risk when a race is run this hard. Kingsley has no official tips attached to this contest, so the selections stand on their own.
The pace picture
Dizzy Dee (1) is the only runner with a ppir of 1 — he maps to lead, rolling forward from barrier 8. The catch is 64.5kg on his back with genuine speed engaged around him, and at a pressure reading of 87.34 per cent he is the one they will be aiming at. Cheating Lilibet (14) is next closest with a ppir of 2 and will also be rolling forward from barrier 3.
From there the map splits sharply. Ever So Ready (9) sits in the first handful at ppir 3 with Monaco Flyer (12) at ppir 4, which is the sweet spot in a race run this fast — close enough to use the tempo, far enough back not to make it. The Lupercal (2) settles midfield at ppir 6. Then come the back-markers: Vendemmia (4) at ppir 8, Five Rings (3) at ppir 9, Il Fratello (7) at ppir 10 and Benriach (17) last at ppir 11. A very fast tempo helps that group in theory, but it asks them to make up a long way on a true rail.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Ever So Ready (9), rated $2.70 against a $2.45 market this morning. He posted a peak rating last start at this very track, swinging wide and continuing to find the line to get there late. A three-year-old third-up with scope, drawn seven, settling midfield with the speed burning in front of him — the weight rise is the one thing to respect.
His second pick is Monaco Flyer (12), rated $11 against a $9 market this morning, and the main danger. He has two wins and three placings from nine at Grafton, which reads strongly against these. He faced the breeze last start and found little late, so that run needs context rather than credit, but he settles handy again and only has to get over from barrier 10.
His third pick is The Lupercal (2), rated $12 against an $11 market this morning. He was beaten under a length last start stuck wide throughout and hit the line hard. He tops the field on CSW and settles midfield — exactly where you want to be with this much pressure up front. Barrier 11 is the obstacle.
His fourth pick is Vendemmia (4), rated $9 against a $6.00 market this morning — the clearest disagreement on the page. Three wins from five at this track and a solid third last time after missing the kick, but he maps a long way back and the market has already taken the value out.
The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, and Cheating Lilibet tops it at 79.92, with Five Rings second and The Lupercal third. CSW blends class, speed and weight into a time rating: The Lupercal leads at 81.25 from Vendemmia at 80.91 and Five Rings at 79.66. Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race, and Dizzy Dee ranks first at 81.3 ahead of Cheating Lilibet and Monaco Flyer. Acceleration is the turn-of-foot figure, and Five Rings owns it at 89.93, clear of The Lupercal and Cheating Lilibet.
The tension is obvious: the two best accelerators outside The Lupercal map at ppir 9 and ppir 2 respectively, while the best cruising figure belongs to the horse carrying 64.5kg in front.
The market read
Il Fratello (7) is rated $6.50 against a $4.80 market this morning after being outgunned late at the Gold Coast, with only three starts behind him and plenty still to prove. Picupstixx (18) is rated $67 against a $34 market, and Iobject (10) rated $91 against a $51 market.
What to watch: whether Dizzy Dee can hold the front under 64.5kg once the pressure bites, because the moment he can't, Ever So Ready and Monaco Flyer are the two sitting in the right place.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.
The interactive version of this preview, with the rated card and Kingsley's selections, is at theking.zone.