Hawkesbury Race 6 Preview: Rated Prices, Pace And Tips
Hawkesbury Race 6 preview: a very fast tempo, Kingsley's top four rated prices and the CAM, CSW and acceleration standouts in a 10-horse field.
A $45,000 contest over 1500m at Hawkesbury with a predicted very fast tempo, and a rated favourite who has to come from a long way back to use it. Race 6 jumps at 4:50pm AEDT and is free to view fully rated on theking.zone today.
The race
Ten runners, drizzle over a Good surface, and the rail out two metres from the 1100m to the 450m before returning to true. That configuration, plus a field with three genuine forward types, is the backbone of everything that follows. The weights are compressed — 59kg down to 55kg — so this is not a race decided by a crushing impost; it is decided by where horses are at the 400m and how much petrol they have left.
The pace picture
The tempo band reads Very Fast with a pressure rating of 86.69 per cent, which is about as hot as a provincial 1500m gets. Ribble Lace (2) maps to lead with a ppir of 1 — ppir measures predicted settling position, where 1 is closest to the lead — and he is also the field's top-rated cruising speed horse, the measure of the tempo a runner can sustain without going into the red. The problem is the traffic behind him. The Warrior (5) is next closest at a ppir of 2, Magenta Shores (9) third at 3, then Sonnig (7) and Prince De Vega (4). That is five horses wanting the first half of the field, and the pressure number says none of them gets an armchair.
Ribble Lace rolling forward into that is the exact scenario Kingsley flags as unhelpful: hot speed at the trip and no easy lead. Magenta Shores led and was run down last start and is yet to win from six attempts at this track. The shape points the race back towards the horses with ppir readings at the other end — Blue Eyed Brigid (6), Bang On Time (7) and, further adrift, Brundee Tom at 10.
Kingsley's four
His top pick is Blue Eyed Brigid (3), rated $1.80 against a $2.40 market this morning — a clear case of his numbers being shorter than the board. She owns the best acceleration figure in the race by a margin, which is exactly the weapon you want when a very fast tempo leaves something to run over late. The race shape was against her last time and she still finished off well, Zac Lloyd taking the ride is an upgrade, and she has trained at the track. The one caveat is barrier 10, which means she gets well back and needs the tempo to hold up. Kingsley's own read is that she tops the numbers without being a race he is attacking.
His second pick Bang On Time (1) is the opposite story on price: rated $4.40 against a $2.70 market this morning, so the market has him considerably shorter than Kingsley does. He rates the best in the field on CSW, missed the kick last start and still battled to third, and is third-up and fitter with Schofield retained. The 1500m is new ground, but his finishing speed suggests he sees it out.
His third pick Prince De Vega (4) is rated $12 against a $6.00 market this morning. He draws the fence and settles handy, which sounds ideal and is not — sitting that close in this tempo is work, and he was one-paced when it counted last time. His fourth pick The Warrior (5) is rated $23 against an $11.00 market this morning, a horse who tops the CAM and sits second on acceleration but has not won in over twelve months. There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips in this race.
The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, and The Warrior leads it from Blue Eyed Brigid and Bang On Time. CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, and there Bang On Time is the standout, with Blue Eyed Brigid next and Ribble Lace third. Cruising speed goes to Ribble Lace ahead of Magenta Shores and The Warrior. Acceleration — the sprint a horse can produce off a sustained tempo — is Blue Eyed Brigid's, with The Warrior second and Bang On Time third. Queen Tavane (8) is last of the ten on both CAM and acceleration from a wide gate.
What to watch: whether Ribble Lace gets to cross cleanly, because if he is pressured through the middle stages the race belongs to the closers.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.
The interactive version of this preview, with the rated card and Kingsley's selections, is at theking.zone.