Caulfield Race 7 Preview: Rated Prices, Pace And Tips
Caulfield Race 7 preview: a fast tempo at 85.01% pressure, Kingsley's top four, rated prices against this morning's market and the metric leaders.
A $240,000 contest over 2000m at Caulfield at 5:10pm AEDT, run at a predicted fast tempo with the rail out 13m. Kingsley has a clear order of four, and he will tell you himself there is no value in it.
The race
Twelve runners, overcast skies and a good surface, with the rail pushed out 13 metres for the entire circuit. It is a strong staying assignment where the weight spread does a lot of the work: Pounding (1) carries 59kg at the top, while four of the chances sit on the 54kg minimum. The rated card and the release market are close enough on the principals that Kingsley's own verdict is the honest one — the shape is readable, the numbers are readable, and the edge is not there.
The pace picture
The tempo band reads Fast with a pressure figure of 85.01 per cent, which is as genuine as a 2000m race at headquarters gets. Sunset Park (9) maps to lead on a ppir of 1 — the lower the figure, the closer a runner settles to the speed — with Smokin' Romans (3) at 2 and Ziryab (8) at 3 filling in the first wave. Air Assault (2) rolls forward from barrier two at a ppir of 5, but a fast tempo over this trip is the wrong setup for a front-runner, and Sunset Park has the leader's job in a race that looks like it will be contested.
That pressure matters most at the other end. Autumn Mystery (10) is projected at a ppir of 11 and Prince Eric (12) at 10, so both need the tempo to collapse in front of them. Pounding sits at 8 and Newfoundland (5) at 7, both a long way from the action early.
Kingsley's four
His top pick is Darkbonee (6), out of barrier one after being caught wide last time, with Damian Lane taking the ride. He settles midfield on a ppir of 9 and has the finishing burst to turn the fast tempo into an advantage, and with four wins from twelve starts he is still trending up. The catch is the price: rated $3.80 against a $3.60 market this morning, which is Kingsley's way of saying the horse is right and the bet is not.
His second pick is Ziryab (8), a winner at Mornington last start who gets a 4.5kg weight drop off the back of it and maps handy at a ppir of 3. Trained by Maher, he rates right at the top of this field on time. Rated $6.50 against a $5.50 market this morning — again the market has the better of it.
His third pick is Autumn Mystery (10), whose last run was fought against the shape, back and wide in an on-pace affair, and he still held the line down the outside. Today's tempo gives him a target to run at. Rated $17 against a $16 market this morning. His fourth pick is Military Academy (11), resuming with blinkers, a nasal strip and front pads all applied for the first time and a Flemington trial behind him, with a solid fresh record. Rated $18 against an $18 market this morning. No runner in this race carries a Golden Bullet or Good Roughie official tip.
What the metrics say
Pounding owns this card on paper. He ranks first on CAM, the composite ability rating that blends a horse's overall form profile into one figure, at 98.3293. He is also first on CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, at 98.61, and first on acceleration — raw finishing burst — at 107.017, clear of the field. The problem is everything the numbers do not cover: 59kg on an eight-year-old, a ppir of 8, and no win from 14 attempts at this track.
Air Assault leads the cruising speed rankings, the measure of the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race, at 101.2, from Sunset Park at 100.4. Ziryab is second on CSW at 97.59 and fourth on cruising at 97.4, the best blend of class time and tempo tolerance among the serious chances. Ambassadorial (4) ranks second on acceleration at 96.5957 and third on CAM. At the bottom, Statuario (7) has the worst acceleration reading in the field at 74.9532. Military Academy has no CAM, CSW or acceleration figure as a resumer, with cruising speed of 93.4 his only rated line.
Watch whether Sunset Park is allowed an easy lead — if she is not, Autumn Mystery from a ppir of 11 is the one the race comes back to.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
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