"What Actually Beats a Short-Priced Sprinter?"

Recorded November 2025 for BEAST MODE!. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

When a top sprinter gets beaten, it is usually not because the horse was not good enough. It is because of a slow tempo, because it settled too far back and could not sprint over the top, or because it struck bad luck. None of those three things are in the horse's control. That is the problem with taking a short quote about a horse that needs the race run a certain way. So before I back one, I go through the form and work out how often those conditions have shown up, and whether another horse in the race sprints better than the favourite when the tempo goes slow.

The three things that beat a fast finisher

Take Jimmy Starr. When I look through his form, he has not been in a lot of slowly run races. His last start in the Russell Balding, where he ran a rating equal to the best he has recorded, came off a very fast pace. Most of his good runs have come off fast or very fast tempos. There are a few average ones, one below average and one slow. The very slow run race was at Newcastle, where he ran seventh. That was back when he kept getting beaten early in his career. So the pattern is clear enough. Slow pace, too far back, bad luck. Those are the three things that get him beaten, and the horse cannot do much about any of them.

What his last two runs showed

The thing I have liked about his last two rides is that they were more positive. In the Everest he got caught three or four wide with no cover and still ran third. In the Russell Balding he got a lovely run midfield, one off the fence. Previously we would see him go back to last, drop out, and then run home like Chautauqua. Those last two runs proved to me that he does not need to do that. He can settle closer and still produce his sprint. That is what a lot of the good horses do. There is no point dropping him right out the back.

Compare the last 200 metre sectionals

So he has a terrific chance. My only issue is the risk of a very slow to slow early tempo, and the fact that there is another horse in the race, Angel Capital, who sprints like a champion off a slow pace. This is where the last 200 metre sectionals do the work. I pull up Angel Capital's two best last 200 metre figures, and both of them came off slow tempos. Then I do the same for Jimmy Starr, and his best came off a fast tempo. Compared side by side, Angel Capital has produced the stronger last 200 metre figures twice over, and he has done it in exactly the conditions that are supposed to beat the favourite. I also do not think Jimmy will settle in front of him.

So that is the check. List the three things that beat the horse, see how often they have actually happened in its form, then compare last 200 metre sectionals with the main danger and note what tempo each one was run off. You still might land on the favourite. You will just know what you are taking on.

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More from Kingsley

• How to Spot a Horse That Only Wins When It Leads
• When Should You Take On a Last Start Winner?
• Why I Avoid Horses Giving Weight in Better Races

From the full video: BEAST MODE!

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