Why I Avoid Horses Giving Weight in Better Races

Recorded July 2025 for Max Bet Ep 1. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

Ratings are a starting point, not the answer. A horse can look ordinary on the raw numbers and still be the right bet, because those numbers do not know what the horse is carrying. The flip side is just as important. A horse can rate well and still be a poor bet, because it is lumping weight and giving kilos to horses coming through the grades. Weight and class sit together, and I want to be on the right side of both.

Settling off a fast tempo but not too far back

Race pressure is one of the first things I look at. In a race with a lot of speed, anything that settles off the pace is advantaged, and the longer the race gets past 1,100 metres, the bigger that advantage becomes. A fast tempo over 1,100 is not unusual, but it still matters. What I do not want is a horse that drops out the back. From 800 to 1,200 metres you never want to be too far back. There is simply not enough time to make the ground up, no matter how good the run home is. So the horse I want is one that settles off them without being buried, and can be closer than its cruising figure suggests.

The ratings do not include the weight

Take Tarpaulin as the example. The class speed weight rating is an 85, which is not high. The total cam is 89, again not high. Cruising sits at 83, though I think the horse can sit a lot closer than that number shows. Acceleration is 94, which is good without being right at the top. On raw numbers alone, you would walk past it. But those are raw numbers, and they do not take weight into account. Tarpaulin has 52.5 kilos. The horses at the top of the market are on 61, 57 and 56. That is five kilos on the field. The strength rating is low and the horse is going up in grade, so it is a harder race. The offset is the big weight drop. Add the fitness from the first up run, the race pressure suiting, the ideal distance at 1,100, the earmuffs going on to help it settle, and the mid prep trial where it did settle a lot more, and the bet makes sense. It is not about the ratings. It is about upside and about conditions that did not suit last time now suiting.

Why giving weight in a better race is the trap

The same logic works in reverse, and that is where I get careful. As you move into the higher class races, I do not want to be finding horses that are up in the weights. If every runner is up in the weights, carrying 59s and 60s, that is fine. Everyone is in the same boat. The problem is when one horse is giving weight away to rivals who are coming through the grades. Those horses are improving, they are unexposed, and they are getting in light. Backing an exposed horse to carry more and beat them is a hard way to make money, and I avoid it.

So when you read a form guide, read the weight column next to the rating, not after it. Ask who is getting in light and who is handing it out, and whether the horse you like is on the right side of that trade.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• Why a Perfect Run Can Flatter a Winner
• How Kingsley Bartholomew Bets First Up Horses
• Horses to Avoid: Stable Changes, Imports and New Distances

From the full video: Max Bet Ep 1 | Finding Bullets

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