How Kingsley Bartholomew Bets First Up Horses

Recorded September 2025 for Why You’re Losing on the Punt (Even When You Pick Winners). Any figures mentioned are from that time.

First up horses used to be my weak spot. Everything in my model was computer based, and the numbers alone never told me enough about a horse resuming from a spell. So I have put a human element back into the process. There are a handful of things I now go through before I will back anything first up, and they have made a real difference to how I handle those races, especially on a Saturday when the better horses come back looking for bigger targets.

Trials tell you more than the form guide

The first thing I do is watch the trials. Not just read the result, watch them. How did the horse go, what time did it run, where did it finish, what was it doing late. The number of trials matters too. To me that is a fitness guide. A horse that has had more than one trial is usually further along than one that has had a single hit out. That does not mean one trial is a negative on its own, but it tells you something about how wound up the stable has it.

This is the part the computer could never do for me. The data does not know whether a horse was held together in a trial or whether it was asked for an effort. You only get that from watching.

Distance suitability and whether the race is the target

The other thing I think is enormously important first up is the distance. Is the horse ready to win at that trip. Has it done it before. Is its running style suited to it. A horse that needs to get back and make one run is not the same proposition over a short trip first up as it is over further.

Sir Delius is a good example. He ran a great race, a terrific Melbourne Cup trial, but that distance was never really going to suit him. I like the horse. I did not back him. The money came for him early, which told me someone thought the same way about the horse that I did, but the trip was wrong and there were bigger fish to fry with the Cup looming. Compare that with Cheowulf over the mile, who seemed to tick every box and was well backed accordingly.

Lady Shenandoah and Jimmy Starr over the thousand are the same story. They are not thousand metre horses. Lady Shenandoah was quite well backed and then eased out late. You find that often. The market firms early on the name, then drifts when people look closer. You will not do well backing horses that are not suited at the distance and are not wound up for a first up performance.

Use the market as a guide, not a reason

The market is a good guide first up. If a resuming horse is well out in betting and you know it is going to get back in the field, that is usually an easy one to leave alone. They can win. I would not be stepping into them.

So before you take a resuming horse, go through the list. Watch the trials, count them, check the distance against what the horse has actually done, think about the running style, and ask yourself whether this race is the target or a stepping stone. If the answer to that last question is a stepping stone, be careful, no matter how good the horse is.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• Horses to Avoid: Stable Changes, Imports and New Distances
• How to Find Reasons a Horse Will Improve
• Why a Jockey Rating Should Measure Profit, Not Ability

From the full video: Why You’re Losing on the Punt (Even When You Pick Winners)

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