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When Should You Take On a Last Start Winner?

A horse that won by finding the lead and getting all the favours is often worth opposing when that setup won't repeat.

When Should You Take On a Last Start Winner?

Recorded July 2025 for Max Bet Ep 1. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

A last start winner looks good on paper. The rating is there, the confidence is there, and most punters tick the box and move on. But the question I ask is simple. How did it win? If a horse that is not a natural leader jumped well, got to the front because the tempo was slow, stacked them up and won, then I am happy to take it on next start if I do not think it gets the same run again. The rating came from the setup, not the horse.

How the form factors stack up between two rivals

The best way to show this is to put two runners side by side and go through the factors. Deep Respect against Kanamala is a good example. Deep Respect has a jockey change that I rate as an edge, with Wheeler a better rider on turnover than the previous jockey. It also sprinted off an unsuitable tempo last start, which tells me the run was better than it looked. It loves the track and it seems to do better over the 1350. That 1350 metre setup at Doomben is the part I like most.

Kanamala is a different story. It is going up in weight. The model I use does not take weight into consideration, and Kanamala has the best acceleration and the best score in that model, along with an upside factor and race pressure. So on raw numbers it reads well. But when I weigh everything up, Deep Respect simply has more going for it.

The winner I want to oppose

Castilian is the interesting one. It won last start and it has the peak rating from that run. It is at the ideal distance and it has a jockey edge and some figures behind it. But it also has a low strength rating, and it got to the lead last time and won from there. That is the part people skip over. The peak rating came after leading.

I do not think Castilian can settle as close this time. For me that is a very big negative. If the only reason the horse was able to produce that run was that it found the front and controlled everything, then take the front away and the run changes shape.

Three reasons the sprint may not be there

First, this is a higher class race. The pressure is different and the horses around it are better. Second, it is up in weight. Third, and most importantly, I do not think it is going to settle as close or get all the favours it got last start. Put those three together and the sprint that won the last race is unlikely to be there again.

None of this means the horse is no good. It means the win came with conditions attached, and the conditions are not repeating. That is a very different thing to a horse that won on merit from back in the field.

So when you see a last start winner, go back and work out where the win came from. If it came from the lead and an easy tempo, ask yourself whether that run is available again. If it is not, you have found a horse worth opposing, and often a better one to be with at the same time.

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From the full video: Max Bet Ep 1 | Finding Bullets

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