How a Professional Punter Runs Form Analysis Queries

Recorded August 2025 for How to Survive a Brutal Punting Weekend. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

When I test form factors, I am not looking for a button that spits out a profit. I am looking for groups of factors that make sense together. That starts with setting the query up properly, then being honest about what a single factor can and cannot tell you. Most of the work is thinking, not clicking.

Why I filter the odds range

For my own analysis I run horses from $1.50 to $20. The reason is stability. Roughies skew the results. The run of outs is too long, and then one of them wins and the whole sample looks different. There are queries where you do want roughies in there, but for general testing they get in the way. Anything under $1.50 does the same thing from the other end. There are not many of them, so when one wins or gets beaten it moves the numbers more than it should.

Once the range is set, I like to run everything inside it first, just to see what I am dealing with. Over a couple of months that gave me around 18,000 bets at minus 4.2 per cent with a 14.8 per cent strike rate. That is the baseline. Backing every horse in that range loses roughly four per cent. Any query I build has to be judged against that, not against zero.

One factor on its own usually does nothing

Take ideal distance. The horse is racing over a trip that suits it. Run that on its own and there were 3,943 horses with that factor for 567 winners, and you would have lost about four per cent on turnover. Same as backing everything. So the factor by itself is not an edge.

That is normal, and it is where a lot of people stop. They run one thing, see a loss, and move on. Or they run twenty things and keep the one that happens to show a profit. Neither approach tells you much.

Build combinations that make sense

So I ask what goes with an ideal distance. A good jockey is an obvious one. Add the jockey edge to the ideal distance and you have a horse at the right trip with a good rider on. That came back as 766 bets for 124 winners and a profit of seven per cent, just from adding one factor.

Then race pressure. To me, race pressure and ideal distance go hand in hand, and the jockey fits with both. Whether it is a leader with no pace against it or a back marker in a race that will fall apart, the pressure either suits or it does not. Adding that lifted the figure to 12.7 per cent, with fewer bets.

You can keep going. Excuses last start is another one that fits. A horse at the right distance, good jockey, pressure to suit, and it was probably unlucky last time. The sample gets smaller each time, which is the trade off.

The point is that every factor I add has a reason to be there. Analysis is not surface level. Run enough queries and something will show a profit by chance. I want queries that make sense before I look at the result.

So set your range, find your baseline, then build out from one factor using things that logically belong with it. If you cannot explain why two factors sit together, the number they produce is not worth much.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• How I Weigh Up Positive and Negative Form Factors
• How to Compare Form Lines Going Into a Group One
• How to Compare Two Horses That Met in the Same Race

From the full video: How to Survive a Brutal Punting Weekend | The Grind Ep 5

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