Why Unknowns Beat Proven Horses in Staying Races
A rating tells you how good a horse has been, not whether untested rivals will improve over a longer trip.
Video
Why Horses That Flash Home Get Overbet Early
Why late-maturing horses that flash home in a big lead-up race get overbet in early markets and often drift before the jump.
How to Read the Signs Behind a Big Market Move
How I turn a horse's first-up time rating into an expected rating for its next run, using its past second-up form.
Why Horses That Map to Get Back Tend to Drift
Horses that map to settle a long way back usually drift, so taking the early price on the right pace profile matters.
How the Horses You Dislike Help You Predict Market Moves
Why knowing which horses will drift is just as useful as knowing which ones will firm, and how to use it.
Why I Take On a Favourite That Has Never Raced on a Heavy Track
A short-priced favourite that has never raced worse than a soft five is worth taking on when the track is rain affected.
How a Professional Punter Maps a Sprint Race
How I build a speed map for a sprint race, and why the finishing question matters more than who leads.