How to Read the Signs Behind a Big Market Move
How I turn a horse's first-up time rating into an expected rating for its next run, using its past second-up form.
Recorded September 2025 for Why Group 1 Favourites Fail + How to Reverse Engineer Big Market Moves. Any figures mentioned are from that time.
Most punters look at what a horse rated last start and stop there. I want to know what it is going to rate next start. That is the number that decides whether a runner is worth backing or not, and it is the number that moves a market. Here is how I build it, using Rise at Dawn as the example.
Start with the weight adjusted time rating
Rise at Dawn's first-up run came back at 94.66 on weight adjusted time ratings. Call it 95. That is effectively equal to its peak rating, which is a big first-up effort. It is also worth noting the run came over 1,400 metres, and you could argue that is a touch short for this horse. Its best distance is arguably 1,500 to 1,600 metres. So we have a horse producing a top rating at a trip that is not ideal for it.
Look at how it has gone second up before
This is where the pattern matters. Last preparation, Rise at Dawn rated 88 first up, then went from 1,400 to 1,600 metres second up and rated 95. The preparation before that, it rated 85 first up over 1,400, then went to 1,600 second up and rated 87. Two preparations, the same distance move, improvement both times. So the horse has a clear habit of stepping forward at its second run, and the extra ground is part of why.
Check the similar race score
I then look at the similarity score against its past runs. I am usually looking for anything over 10. In this case the race that scores highest is second up, over a very similar distance, 1,500 against 1,600, at the same point in the preparation. That tells me the comparison is a fair one, not a coincidence. It is the same shape of run, so what the horse did last time in that situation is a reasonable guide to what it does here.
Settle on an expected rating
Everything points to improvement, but you have to be sensible about how much. Rise at Dawn has never rated higher than 95 in its whole career. So you cannot simply tack on a few points and call it a new peak. If it rated 95 first up, you are already close to the ceiling. I will put the expected rating in at 96. That is a horse improving, but improving within what it has shown it is capable of.
Then I do the same thing for every other runner in the race under double figures. NCAP rated 85 first up, which is below its par, and it is going from 1,300 to 1,500 metres, so I go back through its own second-up runs and build its expected rating the same way.
Try it on one race. Take the first-up rating, find the horse's own second-up pattern, check the similar race score, then set a figure you can justify. When a horse firms, you will usually find the reason sitting in that work.
Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.
More from Kingsley
- Why Horses That Map to Get Back Tend to Drift
- How the Horses You Dislike Help You Predict Market Moves
- Why I Take On a Favourite That Has Never Raced on a Heavy Track
From the full video: Why Group 1 Favourites Fail + How to Reverse Engineer Big Market Moves
Gamble responsibly. 18+. If gambling is a problem for you, call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
