Why I Take On a Favourite That Has Never Raced on a Heavy Track

Recorded September 2025 for The Bookies That Still Let Me Bet. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

It has been pouring for the last twenty four hours. The roads are flooded and the track is a heavy 10, but the rain has stopped and it is not meant to come back. My read is we end up around a heavy eight, maybe a slow seven. That changes the way I rate the race, and it is the reason I am happy to take on the favourite and side with Gangster Granny.

What the wet track does to the ratings

Gangster Granny ran second to Autumn Glow over 1100 metres and now steps up to 1200, which suits her. She ran 102 there, 101.9 on a heavy 10. Look at her surface history and it goes soft seven, good, good, good, good, heavy 10. The heavy 10 is her best rating. She also won a trial before that on a heavy track. A 102 is classy. The peak ratings of Autumn Glow, Lady Shenandoah and Treasure the Moment sit at 102 as well, so that is a fast time, even allowing for the going.

Jolly Star's peak is a 105, but that was down the straight at Flemington in the Newmarket, and I am always sceptical of straight course ratings. The next best is a 101. She has only broken 100 twice and there are plenty of nineties in there. Then flick across to her track conditions. Soft five, soft five, good, good, good, soft five, soft five. She has never raced on anything worse than a soft five. For me that is a big query on a day like this.

Why the class, speed and weight picture flips

When I translate the raw ratings into class, speed and weight, Gangster Granny sits on 100, Jolly Star on 95 and Stefi Magnetica on 95. On camera time it is Stefi 105, Jolly 104, Granny 100. So the gap people assume is there is not there once you weight it properly.

I do not want to back Stefi Magnetica. She is zero from four over 1200 metres and one from six first up. She was unplaced in a recent trial, so I do not think she will be wound up and ready to go. She has a class edge and her acceleration is through the roof. In a different race that is a different story. First up over 1200, I have her as a lay.

The race shape and the instructions

Manal, Lilac and Spicy Martini can all go forward. I expect Gangster Granny to sit just behind them. Manal's first up run was not good at all, she has missed a place her last four starts, and she looks under the odds. Lilac out of barrier one was the horse I thought was the danger. She was third in a lead up trial and should get to the front. This is a harder race, but Rosehill can become very leaderish, so she is worth something as a saver.

Jolly Star carries 59 kilos, has the wet query, is first up for Chris Waller and is being set for an Everest. She draws barrier seven and I believe the instructions for Zach Lloyd will be to go back. That gives Gangster Granny plenty of start at Rosehill. Granny is second up, six starts for six placings, and her last start second behind a potential superstar is worth plenty.

When a short-priced horse has never seen the ground, check the surface line on its form before you accept the market. That one column can change the whole race.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• How a Professional Punter Maps a Sprint Race
• How Track Bias Data Decides My Bet on a Heavy Track
• Why Bookmaker Disputes Are Killing Racing Turnover

From the full video: The Bookies That Still Let Me Bet | Max Bet Ep 7

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