How the Horses You Dislike Help You Predict Market Moves
Why knowing which horses will drift is just as useful as knowing which ones will firm, and how to use it.
Recorded November 2025 for 10 Betting Systems That Actually Work. Any figures mentioned are from that time.
Most people only look at the horses they want to back. I think the horses you rate poorly are just as useful, because they tell you where the money is not going. If you know a runner is going to drift, you also know something else in that race is likely to firm. That is the whole game when you are trying to read a market before the jump.
The numbers behind the lays
When I split my ratings into backs and lays and run them at the highest price the corporate bookies bet from 10AM, the backs come out at plus seven and the lays at minus 13. That is a 20% gap between the horses I like and the horses I do not like, measured at a pretty good price.
Then I ran the same lays at Betfair SP, with no commission taken out. They only lose three. So the horses I do not like are about 10% better at Betfair SP than they are at the best early bookmaker price. That tells you two things. Number one, a lot of those horses drift. Number two, they are often better value on the exchange than they are with the corporates.
That is useful even if you think my form is rubbish and I have no idea what I am talking about. You can run your own ratings and ignore mine entirely. The point stands. It is still about predicting fluctuations, and sometimes bringing in other information helps you do that.
How to use a drifter to find a firmer
If you are working off my stuff, the races worth looking hardest at are the ones with one, two or three lays sitting prominently in the market. Those are the ones where I think the market has it wrong and money is going to come off those horses.
Say the favourite is $2.50 and I have the horse rated at $4. That horse looks like a drifter to me. If it drifts out to $3.50, something in that race has to firm, because the money has to go somewhere. Is it the horse I want to back? More likely than not, yes. That runner becomes a much better chance of being a firmer, which changes how early I want to be on it.
When to wait instead
The opposite situation is just as important. If I have a bet in a race but the favourite is roughly where I have it, and the second favourite is roughly where I have it too, then I am not taking a strong position against anything in the market. There is no obvious drifter to push money across to my horse.
In that case the odds are my runner drifts a bit rather than firms. So I would rather wait, let the price come out, and take it closer to jump time. Being early is only an advantage when you have a reason to believe the price is about to shorten.
So look at a race twice. Once for what you want to back, and once for what you think will drift. The second pass tells you whether to bet now or sit on your hands, and over a lot of races that decision is worth as much as the selection itself.
Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.
More from Kingsley
- Why I Take On a Favourite That Has Never Raced on a Heavy Track
- How a Professional Punter Maps a Sprint Race
- How Track Bias Data Decides My Bet on a Heavy Track
From the full video: 10 Betting Systems That Actually Work
Gamble responsibly. 18+. If gambling is a problem for you, call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
