"Should You Bet Against a Jockey Who Is Out of Form?"

Recorded October 2025 for I Took $2.70 Yesterday. I'm Betting MORE on Saturday. Here's Why.. Any figures mentioned are from that time.

Every time I put up a horse with a jockey who has been copping it on social media, I get the same messages. Jamie's not riding well. You can't back Jamie. I don't subscribe to that theory. I'm not saying whether she's riding well or not, because I don't really know. What I do know is that she's a top jockey and she knows how to get the job done. A couple of bad rides does not mean somebody is going to keep riding badly.

Only one horse can win a race

This is the part people forget when they start counting a jockey's recent rides. Only one horse can win a race. Most rides end in defeat no matter who is on top. So if you go looking for a stretch where a good rider hasn't won much, you will always find one. That tells you almost nothing about the next ride.

Jockeys go through runs of outs the same way punters do. Anyone who has bet for long enough knows what that feels like. You are doing the same things, making the same decisions, and the results just aren't landing. It doesn't mean the process has fallen apart. A rider is in the same boat, except their run of outs is public and gets picked over by everyone watching.

I'm betting on the run, not the reputation

With Half Yours, the reason I like the horse has nothing to do with how the jockey's last few weeks have gone. It's barrier two. It's fifty two and a half kilos, a drop of three and a half kilos. From that barrier she can sit a little handier if she wants to. That's the shape of the race I'm interested in. I think the horse is going to be very hard to beat off the economical run Jamie is going to give it.

That's the actual bet. Good gate, light weight, and a rider who can take the economical option when it's there. None of that changes because somebody had a rough week. If I thought the rider couldn't be trusted to use a good barrier, that would be a different conversation. But that's not what a short run of losing rides tells me.

Where I do get cautious

I'm not saying every horse is a bet. Land Legend rates well on acceleration and I'd like to see him put something together, but he's been really disappointing this spring. He's drawn barrier 15. I'm not calling him a winning chance from there and I don't want to be on him, because he's just not showing enough. I still think he will improve and I think the Caulfield Cup is a race where he could do something. But that's a judgement about the horse and the draw, which is where my doubts should sit.

That's the difference. Downgrade a horse for the things you can actually see in front of you. The barrier, the weight, the way it has been racing. Don't downgrade it because of noise about the person on its back.

Next time you see a jockey getting written off, have a look at whether anything about the horse's situation has actually changed. If the gate and the weight still stack up, the criticism of the rider is someone else's problem, not yours.

Every race on the card, rated, with Kingsley's selections and the speed maps behind them. Your first day is free, no card needed.

More from Kingsley

• How to Line Up Tote, Betfair and Corporate Bookie Prices
• "Why Does a Short-Priced Lay Mean Value in the Race?"
• "Should You Back the Melbourne Cup Favourite?"

From the full video: I Took $2.70 Yesterday. I'm Betting MORE on Saturday. Here's Why.

Gamble responsibly. 18+. If gambling is a problem for you, call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au